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On Scenarios of Development of the Arctic Economy and Navigation

Author

Listed:
  • Yu. V. Pankova

    (Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences
    Novosibirsk State University)

  • O. V. Tarasova

    (Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences
    Novosibirsk State University)

Abstract

— The article assesses the scenarios for the implementation of the northern vector of economic development of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the question of the role of the Northern Sea Route in the national economy is being raised: it will serve as a latitudinal transport coridor or artery, ensuring the redevelopment of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. On the basis of the input-output model, spatial forecasts of the country’s economic development until 2030 are obtained in three versions: with the inertial development of the NSR, with an increase in international transit, and with its addition of export supplies of mineral raw materials mined in the Russian Arctic. It is shown that the implementation of a complex of mining projects will lead to a positive national economic effect for the country as a whole. However, this will entail the strengthening of the export–raw material model of economic development, the growth of interregional differentiation in terms of investment in fixed assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu. V. Pankova & O. V. Tarasova, 2020. "On Scenarios of Development of the Arctic Economy and Navigation," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 514-521, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:31:y:2020:i:5:d:10.1134_s1075700720050147
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700720050147
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2010. "A theory of infrastructure-led development," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 932-950, May.
    2. Wang, Hua & Zhang, Yiru & Meng, Qiang, 2018. "How will the opening of the Northern Sea Route influence the Suez Canal Route? An empirical analysis with discrete choice models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 75-89.
    3. N. I. Komkov & V. S. Selin & V. A. Tsukerman & E. S. Goryachevskaya, 2016. "Scenario forecast of the development of the Northern Sea Route," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 180-188, March.
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