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Short-Term Projection Using the Monetary Efficiency Index

Author

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  • E. V. Balatsky

    (Center for Macroeconomic Studies of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
    Central Economic Mathematical Institute Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • N. A. Ekimova

    (Center for Macroeconomic Studies of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation)

Abstract

This article has presented a short-term macroeconomic indicator, the index of monetary efficiency, which is an aggregate of two subindices, i.e., monetary stability and monetary freedom. An econometric model has been constructed, in which the GDP depends on the index of monetary efficiency with a lag of 8 months, which allows for the proactive prediction of economic growth. All analytical tools have been evaluated based on the statistical data of the Bank of Russia with a monthly breakdown.

Suggested Citation

  • E. V. Balatsky & N. A. Ekimova, 2018. "Short-Term Projection Using the Monetary Efficiency Index," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 423-432, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:29:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1134_s1075700718040020
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700718040020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. A. Akaev & N. S. Ziyadullaev & A. I. Sarygulov & V. N. Sokolov, 2016. "Medium-term forecast of the dynamics of the development of the Russian economy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 510-517, September.
    2. Polterovich, Victor, 2007. "Institutional Trap," MPRA Paper 20595, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. V. S. Panfilov & O. Dzh. Govtvan’ & A. K. Moiseev, 2017. "Finance and credit in the strategy for the economic development and structured investment policy of the Russian Federation," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 28(6), pages 575-584, November.
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