IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/soinre/v142y2019i1d10.1007_s11205-018-1910-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Legacy of the Great Recession in Italy: A Wider Geographical, Gender, and Generational Gap in Working Life Expectancy

Author

Listed:
  • Angelo Lorenti

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Christian Dudel

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Mikko Myrskylä

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
    London School of Economics and Political Science
    University of Helsinki)

Abstract

Under the pressure of population aging the Italian pension system has undergone reforms to increase labor force participation and retirement age, and, thus, the length of working life. However, how the duration of working life has developed in recent years is not well understood. This paper is the first to analyze trends in working life expectancy in Italy. We use data from a nationally representative longitudinal sample of 880,000 individuals from 2003 to 2013 and estimate working life expectancy by gender, occupational category, and region of residence using a Markov chain approach. We document large and increasing heterogeneity in the length of working life. From 2003–2004 to 2012–2013, working life expectancy for men declined from 35.2 to 27.2 years and for women from 34.7 to 23.7 years, increasing the gender gap to 3.5 years. Both young and old were hit, as roughly half of the decline was attributable to ages below 40, half above 40. Working life expectancy declined for all occupational groups, but those in manual occupations lost most, 8.5 years (men) and 10.5 years (women). The North–South economic gradient widened such that men living in the North were expected to work 8 years longer than women living in the South. The fraction of working life of total life expectancy at age 15 declined to record lows at 40% for men and 34% for women in 2012–2013. Policies aiming at increasing total population working life expectancy need to take into consideration the socio-demographic disparities highlighted by our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Angelo Lorenti & Christian Dudel & Mikko Myrskylä, 2019. "The Legacy of the Great Recession in Italy: A Wider Geographical, Gender, and Generational Gap in Working Life Expectancy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 283-303, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:142:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-018-1910-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-018-1910-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11205-018-1910-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11205-018-1910-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Hayward & William Grady, 1990. "Work and Retirement Among a Cohort of Older Men in the United States, 1966–1983," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 27(3), pages 337-356, August.
    2. Francesco C. Billari & Guido Tabellini, 2010. "Italians Are Late: Does It Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 371-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Valeria Cirillo & Marta Fana & Dario Guarascio, 2017. "Labour market reforms in Italy: evaluating the effects of the Jobs Act," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(2), pages 211-232, August.
    4. Niall O’Higgins, 2011. "Italy: Limited Policy Responses and Industrial Relations in Flux, Leading to Aggravated Inequalities," Chapters, in: Daniel Vaughan-Whitehead (ed.), Work Inequalities in the Crisis, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Christian Dudel & María Andrée López Gómez & Fernando G. Benavides & Mikko Myrskylä, 2018. "The Length of Working Life in Spain: Levels, Recent Trends, and the Impact of the Financial Crisis," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 769-791, December.
    6. Alfonso ARPAIA & Nicola CURCI, "undated". "EU labour market behaviour during the Great Recession," Working Papers wp2010-6, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    7. Christian Dudel & Mikko Myrskylä, 2017. "Working Life Expectancy at Age 50 in the United States and the Impact of the Great Recession," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(6), pages 2101-2123, December.
    8. Zoltan Butt & Steven Haberman & Richard Verrall & Victoria Wass, 2008. "Calculating compensation for loss of future earnings: estimating and using work life expectancy," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(4), pages 763-805, October.
    9. Michael D. Giandrea & Kevin E. Cahill & Joseph F. Quinn, 2007. "Bridge Jobs: A Comparison across Cohorts," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 670, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 22 Dec 2008.
    10. Raffaele Lagravinese, 2015. "Economic crisis and rising gaps North–South: evidence from the Italian regions," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 8(2), pages 331-342.
    11. Kevin E. Cahill & Michael D. Giandrea & Joseph F. Quinn, 2005. "Are Traditional Retirements a Thing of the Past? New Evidence on Retirement Patterns and Bridge Jobs," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 626, Boston College Department of Economics.
    12. Chiara Mussida & Dario Sciulli, 2016. "The trend over time of labour market opportunities for young people in Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 33(2), pages 291-321, August.
    13. David Warner & Mark Hayward & Melissa Hardy, 2010. "The Retirement Life Course in America at the Dawn of the Twenty-First Century," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 29(6), pages 893-919, December.
    14. repec:bla:kyklos:v:50:y:1997:i:2:p:221-45 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Ulrike Muehlberger & Silvia Pasqua, 2009. "Workers on the Border between Employment and Self-employment," Review of Social Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 67(2), pages 201-228.
    16. Millimet, Daniel L. & Nieswiadomy, Michael & Ryu, Hang & Slottje, Daniel, 2003. "Estimating worklife expectancy: an econometric approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 83-113, March.
    17. Conchita D'Ambrosio & Nicholas Rohde, 2014. "The Distribution of Economic Insecurity: Italy and the U.S. over the Great Recession," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S1), pages 33-52, May.
    18. Gary Skoog & James Ciecka, 2010. "Measuring years of inactivity, years in retirement, time to retirement, and age at retirement within the Markov model," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(3), pages 609-628, August.
    19. O'Higgins, Niall, 2012. "This Time It's Different? Youth Labour Markets During 'The Great Recession'," IZA Discussion Papers 6434, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Danielle Venn, 2012. "Eligibility Criteria for Unemployment Benefits: Quantitative Indicators for OECD and EU Countries," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 131, OECD Publishing.
    21. Markku M. Nurminen & Christopher R. Heathcote & Brett A. Davis & Borek D. Puza, 2005. "Working life expectancies: the case of Finland 1980–2006," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 168(3), pages 567-581, July.
    22. Fabio R Arico & Ulrike Stein, 2012. "Was Short-Time Work a Miracle Cure During the Great Recession? The Case of Germany and Italy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 54(2), pages 275-297, June.
    23. repec:bla:revinw:v:60:y:2014:i::p:s33-s52 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Agar Brugiavini, 1998. "An Empirical Analysis of Interfirm Mobility in Italy," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 57(1), pages 1-34, April.
    25. David N. F. Bell & David G. Blanchflower, 2011. "Young people and the Great Recession," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(2), pages 241-267.
    26. Yee, Thomas W., 2010. "The VGAM Package for Categorical Data Analysis," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 32(i10).
    27. Brugiavini, Agar, 2001. "Early retirement in Europe," European Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 501-515, October.
    28. Dudel, Christian & López Gómez, María Andrée & Benavides, Fernando G. & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2018. "The length of working life in Spain: levels, recent trends, and the impact of the financial crisis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86990, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    29. Jim Taylor & Steve Bradley, 1997. "Unemployment in Europe: A Comparative Analysis of Regional Disparities in Germany, Italy and the UK," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 221-245, May.
    30. Mark D. Hayward & Daniel T. Lichter, 1998. "A Life Cycle Model of Labor Force Inequality," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 26(4), pages 487-510, May.
    31. Palme, Joakim, 2013. "Unemployment Benefits in EU Member States," Working Paper Series, Center for Labor Studies 2013:15, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Abatemarco & Maria Russolillo, 2023. "The Dynamics of the Gender Gap at Retirement in Italy: Evidence from SHARE," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(2), pages 445-473, July.
    2. Jo M. Hale & Christian Dudel & Angelo Lorenti, 2020. "Cumulative disparities in the dynamics of working poverty for later-career U.S. workers (2002-2012)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-028, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Hale, Jo Mhairi & Dudel, Christian & Lorenti, Angelo, 2020. "Cumulative disparities in the dynamics of working poverty for later-career U.S. workers (2002-2012)," SocArXiv xka5j, Center for Open Science.
    4. Daniela Weber & Elke Loichinger, 2022. "Live longer, retire later? Developments of healthy life expectancies and working life expectancies between age 50–59 and age 60–69 in Europe," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 75-93, March.
    5. Margherita Moretti & Timothy Riffe & Angelo Lorenti, 2023. "Multistate analysis and decomposition of disability-free life expectancy trends in Italy 2004-2019," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-030, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lorenti, Angelo & Dudel, Christian & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2018. "The legacy of the great recession in Italy: a wider geographical, gender, and generational gap in working life expectancy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88302, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Christian Dudel & María Andrée López Gómez & Fernando G. Benavides & Mikko Myrskylä, 2018. "The Length of Working Life in Spain: Levels, Recent Trends, and the Impact of the Financial Crisis," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 769-791, December.
    3. Dudel, Christian & López Gómez, María Andrée & Benavides, Fernando G. & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2018. "The length of working life in Spain: levels, recent trends, and the impact of the financial crisis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86990, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Christian Dudel & Mikko Myrskylä, 2016. "Recent trends in US working life expectancy at age 50 by gender, education, and race/ethnicity and the impact of the Great Recession," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2016-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Christian Dudel, 2017. "Expanding the Markov chain tool box: distributions of occupation times and waiting times," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2017-017, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Lorenti, Angelo & Dudel, Christian & Hale, Jo Mhairi & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2020. "Working and disability expectancies at older ages: the role of childhood circumstances and education," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106194, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Christian Dudel, 2021. "Expanding the Markov Chain Toolbox: Distributions of Occupation Times and Waiting Times," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 50(1), pages 401-428, February.
    8. Hale, Jo Mhairi & Dudel, Christian & Lorenti, Angelo, 2020. "Cumulative disparities in the dynamics of working poverty for later-career U.S. workers (2002-2012)," SocArXiv xka5j, Center for Open Science.
    9. Christian Dudel & Mikko Myrskylä, 2017. "Working Life Expectancy at Age 50 in the United States and the Impact of the Great Recession," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(6), pages 2101-2123, December.
    10. Jo M. Hale & Christian Dudel & Angelo Lorenti, 2020. "Cumulative disparities in the dynamics of working poverty for later-career U.S. workers (2002-2012)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-028, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    11. Lanza Queiroz, Bernardo & Lobo Alves Ferreira, Matheus, 2021. "The evolution of labor force participation and the expected length of retirement in Brazil," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    12. Mariona Lozano & Elisenda Rentería, 2019. "Work in Transition: Labour Market Life Expectancy and Years Spent in Precarious Employment in Spain 1986–2016," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 185-200, August.
    13. Josef C Brada & Marcello Signorelli, 2012. "Comparing Labor Market Performance: Some Stylized Facts and Key Findings," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 54(2), pages 231-250, June.
    14. Enrico MARELLI & Elena VAKULENKO, 2014. "Youth Unemployment in Italy and Russia: Aggregate Trends and the Role of Individual Determinants," Working papers of the Department of Economics - University of Perugia (IT) 0001/2014, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    15. Enrico Marelli & Elena Vakulenko, 2016. "Youth unemployment in Italy and Russia: Aggregate trends and individual determinants," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 27(3), pages 387-405, September.
    16. Ebell, Monique. & O'Higgins, Niall., 2015. "Fiscal policy and the youth labour market," ILO Working Papers 994898963402676, International Labour Organization.
    17. Enrico Marelli & Misbah T. Choudhry & Marcello Signorelli, 2013. "Youth and total unemployment rate: the impact of policies and institutions," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 121(1), pages 63-86.
    18. Christian Dudel & Elke Loichinger & Sebastian Klüsener & Harun Sulak & Mikko Myrskylä, 2021. "The extension of late working life in Germany: trends, inequalities, and the East-West divide," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-018, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    19. Jiaxin Shi & Christian Dudel & Christiaan Monden & Alyson A. van Raalte, 2022. "Inequalities in retirement lifespan in the United States," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-015, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    20. Simon Colnar & Vlado Dimovski & David Bogataj, 2019. "Knowledge Management and the Sustainable Development of Social Work," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-20, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:142:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-018-1910-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.