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Working life expectancies: the case of Finland 1980–2006

Author

Listed:
  • Markku M. Nurminen
  • Christopher R. Heathcote
  • Brett A. Davis
  • Borek D. Puza

Abstract

Summary. Working life expectancy is the future time that a person is expected to spend in employment. The paper is concerned with its estimation jointly with the expected times spent in the related states of ‘on disability pension’ and ‘other alive’. The method, which is novel in this field, first estimates year‐ and age‐dependent probabilities of being in the states of interest by large sample multivariate logistic regression. Estimates of probabilities, and subsequently expectancies, are given for the case of Finnish women and men aged 16–64 years for selected years in the period 1980–2001, together with projections for 2006. Since 1996 the decline in the employment of males has largely been due to the increasing popularity of early retirement. It was not due to an increase in disability. There has been no such decline for women, and the working life expectancy for males has been predicted to decline to or to fall below the initially lower figure for females by 2006. Considering that the Finnish population is aging rapidly, these trends could entail serious social and economic consequences for society in the coming years because of a looming shortage in the labour force that could undermine the sustainability of a welfare state.

Suggested Citation

  • Markku M. Nurminen & Christopher R. Heathcote & Brett A. Davis & Borek D. Puza, 2005. "Working life expectancies: the case of Finland 1980–2006," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 168(3), pages 567-581, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:168:y:2005:i:3:p:567-581
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2005.00364.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. B. A. Davis, 2002. "Estimating and interpolating a Markov chain from aggregate data," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(1), pages 95-110, March.
    2. Millimet, Daniel L. & Nieswiadomy, Michael & Ryu, Hang & Slottje, Daniel, 2003. "Estimating worklife expectancy: an econometric approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 83-113, March.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Christian Dudel & Mikko Myrskylä, 2016. "Recent trends in US working life expectancy at age 50 by gender, education, and race/ethnicity and the impact of the Great Recession," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2016-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Mariona Lozano & Elisenda Rentería, 2019. "Work in Transition: Labour Market Life Expectancy and Years Spent in Precarious Employment in Spain 1986–2016," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 185-200, August.
    4. Aysan Senturk & Emin Atasoy, 2008. "Comparison of the Accuracy of the Human Development Index with a Discriminant Analysis in the Measurement of Human Development," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 91-101.
    5. Christian Dudel & María Andrée López Gómez & Fernando G. Benavides & Mikko Myrskylä, 2018. "The Length of Working Life in Spain: Levels, Recent Trends, and the Impact of the Financial Crisis," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 769-791, December.
    6. Christian Dudel, 2017. "Expanding the Markov chain tool box: distributions of occupation times and waiting times," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2017-017, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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