IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/soinre/v136y2018i1d10.1007_s11205-017-1572-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Ex-Ante Evaluation of Achieving Sustainable Development Goals

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenza Campagnolo

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Carlo Carraro

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
    Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
    Ca’Foscari University of Venice)

  • Fabio Eboli

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
    Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)

  • Luca Farnia

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
    Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)

  • Ramiro Parrado

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
    Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)

  • Roberta Pierfederici

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

Abstract

This paper describes the methodology and main results from an overall assessment on future achievement of sustainable development goals. The proposed approach consists of a model-based, looking forward composite sustainable development index—FEEM sustainability index—projected to the future. It represents a first experiment to reproduce the future dynamics of sustainable development indicators over time and worldwide and to assess future sustainability under different scenarios. The assessment presented here is relevant under different viewpoints. First, it has a very broad nature in terms of both geographical coverage and meaningfulness: it considers the multi-dimensional structure of sustainable development by combining relevant indicators belonging to economic, social and environmental pillars for the whole world. Second, the modelling framework to compute future trends of indicators relies upon a recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model. This is an ideal tool to look simultaneously at the development of many indicators, their potential interactions and trade-offs, and more in general to the consequences of economic development and/or policies aiming to increase performance in one or more indicators; it allows measuring the overall sustainability under alternative scenarios, across countries and over time. Finally, regarding the construction of the composite indicator, the application of fuzzy measures and Choquet integral increases substantially the model capability allowing taking into account the interactions that exist among the three main pillars of sustainability and the considered indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenza Campagnolo & Carlo Carraro & Fabio Eboli & Luca Farnia & Ramiro Parrado & Roberta Pierfederici, 2018. "The Ex-Ante Evaluation of Achieving Sustainable Development Goals," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 73-116, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:136:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-017-1572-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-017-1572-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11205-017-1572-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11205-017-1572-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caterina Cruciani & Silvio Giove & Mehmet Pinar & Matteo Sostero, 2012. "Constructing the FEEM Sustainability Index: A Choquet-Integral Application," Working Papers 2012.50, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Lorenza Campagnolo & Carlo Carraro & Marinella Davide & Fabio Eboli & Elisa Lanzi & Ramiro Parrado, 2016. "Can climate policy enhance sustainability?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 639-653, August.
    3. World Commission on Environment and Development,, 1987. "Our Common Future," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780192820808.
    4. Marichal, Jean-Luc & Roubens, Marc, 2000. "Determination of weights of interacting criteria from a reference set," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 641-650, August.
    5. Giuseppe Munda, 2003. "Social Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE)," UHE Working papers 2003_04, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Departament d'Economia i Història Econòmica, Unitat d'Història Econòmica.
    6. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    7. Eboli, Fabio & Parrado, Ramiro & Roson, Roberto, 2010. "Climate-change feedback on economic growth: explorations with a dynamic general equilibrium model," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 515-533, October.
    8. Rose, Steven K. & Lee, Huey-Lin, 2008. "Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data for Climate Change Economic Analysis," Working papers 283461, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Munda, Giuseppe, 2004. "Social multi-criteria evaluation: Methodological foundations and operational consequences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 158(3), pages 662-677, November.
    10. Patrick Meyer & Marc Roubens, 2005. "Choice, Ranking and Sorting in Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision Aid," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: State of the Art Surveys, chapter 0, pages 471-503, Springer.
    11. Parrado, Ramiro & De Cian, Enrica, 2014. "Technology spillovers embodied in international trade: Intertemporal, regional and sectoral effects in a global CGE framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 76-89.
    12. Marichal, Jean-Luc, 2007. "k-intolerant capacities and Choquet integrals," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 177(3), pages 1453-1468, March.
    13. Rose, Steven & Lee, Huey-Lin, 2008. "Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data for Climate Change Economic Analysis," GTAP Working Papers 2604, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    14. Pearce, David W. & Atkinson, Giles D., 1993. "Capital theory and the measurement of sustainable development: an indicator of "weak" sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 103-108, October.
    15. World Bank, 2012. "Inclusive Green Growth : The Pathway to Sustainable Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6058.
    16. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    17. Marichal, Jean-Luc, 2004. "Tolerant or intolerant character of interacting criteria in aggregation by the Choquet integral," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 155(3), pages 771-791, June.
    18. World Bank, 2013. "World Development Indicators 2013," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13191.
    19. Burniaux, Jean-March & Truong, Truong P., 2002. "Gtap-E: An Energy-Environmental Version Of The Gtap Model," Technical Papers 28705, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    21. Grabisch, Michel, 1996. "The application of fuzzy integrals in multicriteria decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 445-456, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Renata Činčikaitė & Ieva Meidute-Kavaliauskiene, 2021. "Assessment of Social Environment Competitiveness in Terms of Security in the Baltic Capitals," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-19, June.
    2. Marcella De Filippo & Delio Colangelo & Luca Farnia, 2017. "Innovation and new business models in tourism," RIVISTA DI STUDI SULLA SOSTENIBILITA', FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(1), pages 149-168.
    3. Anetta Barska & Janina Jędrzejczak-Gas & Joanna Wyrwa & Krzysztof Kononowicz, 2020. "Multidimensional Assessment of the Social Development of EU Countries in the Context of Implementing the Concept of Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-24, September.
    4. Hametner, Markus, 2022. "Economics without ecology: How the SDGs fail to align socioeconomic development with environmental sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    5. Satish Kumar & Filomena Maggino & Raj V. Mahto & Riya Sureka & Leonardo Salvatore Alaimo & Weng Marc Lim, 2022. "Social Indicators Research: A Retrospective Using Bibliometric Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 413-448, July.
    6. Luca Farnia, 2019. "On the Use of Spectral Value Decomposition for the Construction of Composite Indices," Working Papers 2019.08, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Krzysztof Dmytrów, 2022. "Assessment of the Similarity of the Situation in the EU Labour Markets and Their Changes in the Face of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-20, March.
    8. Farnia, Luca & Cavalli, Laura & Vergalli, Sergio, 2019. "Italian Cities SDGs Composite Index: A Methodological Approach to Measure the Agenda 2030 at Urban Level," ES: Economics for Sustainability 291803, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) > ES: Economics for Sustainability.
    9. Hametner, Markus & Kostetckaia, Mariia, 2020. "Frontrunners and laggards: How fast are the EU member states progressing towards the sustainable development goals?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    10. Anita Breuer & Hannah Janetschek & Daniele Malerba, 2019. "Translating Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Interdependencies into Policy Advice," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-20, April.
    11. Marianela Carrillo, 2022. "Measuring Progress towards Sustainability in the European Union within the 2030 Agenda Framework," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-23, June.
    12. Francesco Sica & Francesco Tajani & Maria Rosaria Guarini & Rossana Ranieri, 2023. "A Sensitivity Index to Perform the Territorial Sustainability in Uncertain Decision-Making Conditions," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-21, February.
    13. Jari Lyytimäki & Kirsi-Marja Lonkila & Eeva Furman & Kaisa Korhonen-Kurki & Satu Lähteenoja, 2021. "Untangling the interactions of sustainability targets: synergies and trade-offs in the Northern European context," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 3458-3473, March.
    14. Mehmet Pinar, 2022. "Choquet-Integral Aggregation Method to Aggregate Social Indicators to Account for Interactions: An Application to the Human Development Index," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 159(1), pages 1-53, January.
    15. Francesco Tajani & Maria Rosaria Guarini & Francesco Sica & Rossana Ranieri & Debora Anelli, 2022. "Multi-Criteria Analysis and Sustainable Accounting. Defining Indices of Sustainability under Choquet’s Integral," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-15, February.
    16. Renata Činčikaitė & Ieva Meidute-Kavaliauskiene, 2021. "An Integrated Competitiveness Assessment of the Baltic Capitals Based on the Principles of Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-14, March.
    17. Aldieri, Luigi & Makkonen, Teemu & Vinci, Concetto Paolo, 2022. "Do research and development and environmental knowledge spillovers facilitate meeting sustainable development goals for resource efficiency?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    18. Luca Farnia & Laura Cavalli & Giula Lizzi & Sergio Vergalli, 2019. "Methodological Insights to Measure the Agenda 2030 at Urban Level in Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-18, August.
    19. Efraim Hernández-Orozco & Ivonne Lobos-Alva & Mario Cardenas-Vélez & David Purkey & Måns Nilsson & Piedad Martin, 2022. "The application of soft systems thinking in SDG interaction studies: a comparison between SDG interactions at national and subnational levels in Colombia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 8930-8964, June.
    20. Daniele Malerba, 2020. "The Trade-off Between Poverty Reduction and Carbon Emissions, and the Role of Economic Growth and Inequality: An Empirical Cross-Country Analysis Using a Novel Indicator," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 150(2), pages 587-615, July.
    21. Durdana Qaiser Gillani & Syed Ahmad Saad Gillani & Muhammad Zahid Naeem & Cristi Spulbar & Elizabeth Coker-Farrell & Abdullah Ejaz & Ramona Birau, 2021. "The Nexus between Sustainable Economic Development and Government Health Expenditure in Asian Countries Based on Ecological Footprint Consumption," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-15, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlo Carraro & Lorenza Campagnolo & Fabio Eboli & Elisa Lanzi & Ramiro Parrado & Elisa Portale, 2012. "Quantifying Sustainability: A New Approach and World Ranking," Working Papers 2012.94, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Marcella De Filippo & Delio Colangelo & Luca Farnia, 2017. "Innovation and new business models in tourism," RIVISTA DI STUDI SULLA SOSTENIBILITA', FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(1), pages 149-168.
    3. Lorenza Campagnolo & Carlo Carraro & Marinella Davide & Fabio Eboli & Elisa Lanzi & Ramiro Parrado, 2016. "Can climate policy enhance sustainability?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 639-653, August.
    4. Delin, Huang, 2012. "Policy Implications and Mitigation Potential in China Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emission," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 124848, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Michel Grabisch & Christophe Labreuche, 2010. "A decade of application of the Choquet and Sugeno integrals in multi-criteria decision aid," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 247-286, March.
    6. Parrado, Ramiro & De Cian, Enrica, 2014. "Technology spillovers embodied in international trade: Intertemporal, regional and sectoral effects in a global CGE framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 76-89.
    7. Coppens, Léo & Dietz, Simon & Venmans, Frank, 2024. "Optimal climate policy under exogenous and endogenous technical change: making sense of the different approaches," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124548, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Francesco Bosello & Lorenza Campagnolo & Raffaello Cervigni & Fabio Eboli, 2018. "Climate Change and Adaptation: The Case of Nigerian Agriculture," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 69(4), pages 787-810, April.
    9. Léo Coppens & Simon Dietz & Frank Venmans, 2024. "Optimal Climate Policy under Exogenous and Endogenous Technical Change: Making Sense of the Different Approaches," CESifo Working Paper Series 11059, CESifo.
    10. Michetti, Melania & Rosa, Renato, 2012. "Afforestation and timber management compliance strategies in climate policy. A computable general equilibrium analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 139-148.
    11. Cruciani, Caterina & Giove, Silvio & Pinar, Mehmet & Sostero, Matteo, 2012. "Constructing the FEEM Sustainability Index: A Choquet-Integral Application," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 130550, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    12. Enrica De Cian & Ramiro Parrado, 2012. "Technology Spillovers Embodied in International Trade: Intertemporal, regional and sectoral effects in a global CGE," Working Papers 2012.27, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    13. Francesco Bosello & Lorenza Campagnolo & Fabio Eboli & Ramiro Parrado, 2012. "Energy from waste: generation potential and mitigation opportunity," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 14(4), pages 403-420, October.
    14. James Lennox & Ramiro Parrado, 2015. "Capital-embodied Technologies in CGE Models," Working Papers 2015.02, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    15. Haddad, Salwa & Escobar, Neus & Bruckner, Martin & Britz, Wolfgang, 2022. "Promoting extensive cattle production in the European Union has major implications for global agricultural trade and climate change," Discussion Papers 324710, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    16. Gabriele Standardi & Shouro Dasgupta & Ramiro Parrado & Enrica Cian & Francesco Bosello, 2023. "Assessing Macro-economic Effects of Climate Impacts on Energy Demand in EU Sub-national Regions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 86(1), pages 173-201, October.
    17. Zhao Qiaojiao & Zeng Ling & Liu Jinjin, 2016. "Fuzzy Integral Multiple Criteria Decision Making Method Based on Fuzzy Preference Relation on Alternatives," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 280-290, June.
    18. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    19. Eboli, Fabio & Parrado, Ramiro & Roson, Roberto, 2010. "Climate-change feedback on economic growth: explorations with a dynamic general equilibrium model," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 515-533, October.
    20. Grabisch, Michel & Kojadinovic, Ivan & Meyer, Patrick, 2008. "A review of methods for capacity identification in Choquet integral based multi-attribute utility theory: Applications of the Kappalab R package," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 766-785, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:136:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-017-1572-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.