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Uncertainty with ordinal likelihood information

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  • Jorge Alcalde-Unzu
  • Ricardo Arlegi
  • Miguel Ballester

Abstract

We present a model that is closely related to the so-called models of choice under complete uncertainty, in which the agent has no information about the probability of the outcomes. There are two approaches within the said models: the state space-based approach, which takes into account the possible states of nature and the correspondence between states and outcomes; and the set-based approach, which ignores such information, and solves certain difficulties arising from the state space-based approach. Kelsey (Int Econ Rev 34:297–308, 1993 ) incorporates into a state space-based framework the assumption that the agent has ordinal information about the likelihood of the states. This paper incorporates this same assumption into a set-based framework, thus filling a theoretical gap in the literature. Compared to the set-based models of choice under complete uncertainty we introduce the information about the ordinal likelihood of the outcomes while, compared to Kelsey’s approach, we incorporate the advantages of describing uncertainty environments from the set-based perspective. We present an axiomatic study that includes adaptations of some of the axioms found in the related literature and we characterize some rules featuring different combinations of information about the ordinal likelihood of the outcomes and information about their desirability. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Alcalde-Unzu & Ricardo Arlegi & Miguel Ballester, 2013. "Uncertainty with ordinal likelihood information," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 41(2), pages 397-425, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:sochwe:v:41:y:2013:i:2:p:397-425
    DOI: 10.1007/s00355-012-0689-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arlegi, Ricardo, 2007. "Sequentially consistent rules of choice under complete uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 131-143, July.
    2. Cohen, Michele & Jaffray, Jean-Yves, 1980. "Rational Behavior under Complete Ignorance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1281-1299, July.
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    4. Prasanta K. Pattanaik & Yongsheng Xu & Walter Bossert, 2000. "Choice under complete uncertainty: axiomatic characterizations of some decision rules," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 16(2), pages 295-312.
    5. Kelsey, David, 1993. "Choice under Partial Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(2), pages 297-308, May.
    6. Nitzan, Shmuel I. & Pattanaik, Prasanta K., 1984. "Median-based extensions of an ordering over a set to the power set: An axiomatic characterization," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 252-261, December.
    7. Kannai, Yakar & Peleg, Bezalel, 1984. "A note on the extension of an order on a set to the power set," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 172-175, February.
    8. Ritxar Arlegi, 2003. "A note on Bossert, Pattanaik and Xu's “Choice under complete uncertainty: axiomatic characterization of some decision rules”," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 22(1), pages 219-225, August.
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    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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