Shared Micro-mobility Market Disturbances: the Polish Bike Sharing Market in Light of Z-score Analysis

Urban transportation has changed dramatically in the recent years through the large scale implementation of shared micro-mobility services, especially bike sharing systems (BSS) and electric scooter sharing (ESS). The COVID-19 pandemic brought further changes and uncertainty to this turbulent business environment. In 2020, the major BSS operator in Poland filed for bankruptcy claiming that its problems arise from the COVID-19 pandemic. Market reports and media speculated that BSS business, despite being publicly financed, and considered to be a of part of public transportation system, could be unsustainable in face of the competition from ESS. We used Z‑score analysis to investigate if bike sharing systems operators’ problems began before or during the COVID-19 pandemic and large scale development of ESS. Our study focuses on the Nextbike company, which held a dominant stake in the Polish BSS market. It also covers two other major Polish operators and includes a German operator for comparative analysis. To complement the quantitative findings from z‑score analysis, we have also interviewed representatives of major stakeholders, which deepened our understanding of BSS problems. The results of our research indicate that although the market was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and growing scooter-sharing competition, the problems of the largest BSS operator were specific to this company, and the entire market was not under the risk of failure.