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Managementprognosen und Analystenschätzungen — Eine deskriptive Analyse auf Basis der HDAX-Unternehmen

Author

Listed:
  • Bernhard Pellens

    (ist Inhaber des Lehrstuhls für Internationale Unternehmensrechnung und Direktor des Instituts für Unternehmensführung (IfU) an der Ruhr-Universität)

  • Kai Lehmann

    (Anschrift: Ruhr-Universität Bochum)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Managementprognosen leisten einen wichtigen Beitrag zum Abbau von Informationsasymmetrien zwischen der Unternehmensleitung und den Stakeholdern. Insbesondere für Finanzanalysten sind die prospektiven Aussagen des Managements im Rahmen der Prognoseberichterstattung bei der Bestimmung des Unternehmenswertes essenziell. Inwiefern Finanzanalysten den Managementprognosen unterjährig folgen und die Prognosequalität beider Gruppen bezüglich der Schätzung wesentlicher Erfolgsgrößen korreliert, ist bisher wenig erforscht. In dem vorliegenden Beitrag wird diesen Fragen nachgegangen, indem das Zusammenspiel von Managementprognosen und den Schätzungen von Finanzanalysten untersucht wird. Es zeigt sich, dass in gesamtwirtschaftlichen Aufschwungs- beziehungsweise Boomphasen ein relativ vorsichtiges Prognoseverhalten seitens des Managements die Regel ist und mit ebenso pessimistischen Analystenschätzungen einhergeht. In Krisenzeiten hingegen kommt es seitens der Unternehmensleitung zu einer relativ exakten Vorhersage wesentlicher Erfolgsgrößen. Ebenso fallen die Schätzungen der Analysten in diesen Phasen weniger pessimistisch aus. Datengrundlage für die Untersuchung bilden die Prognoseberichte aus den Quartals- und Geschäftsberichten der Unternehmen des HDAX der Jahre 2005 bis 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernhard Pellens & Kai Lehmann, 2012. "Managementprognosen und Analystenschätzungen — Eine deskriptive Analyse auf Basis der HDAX-Unternehmen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 64(8), pages 873-892, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sjobre:v:64:y:2012:i:8:d:10.1007_bf03372874
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03372874
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henselmann, Klaus & Klein, Martin & Raschdorf, Florian, 2010. "Prognoseeignung des Prognoseberichts? Eine empirisch gestützte Diskussion vor dem Hintergrund aktueller Änderungen im DRS 15 und der geplanten Umsetzung des ED Management Commentary," Working Papers in Accounting Valuation Auditing 2010-2, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Accounting and Auditing.
    2. Julie Cotter & Irem Tuna & Peter D. Wysocki, 2006. "Expectations Management and Beatable Targets: How Do Analysts React to Explicit Earnings Guidance?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(3), pages 593-624, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    G10; G17; G30; M41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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