IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/sjobre/v64y2012i8d10.1007_bf03372874.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Managementprognosen und Analystenschätzungen — Eine deskriptive Analyse auf Basis der HDAX-Unternehmen

Author

Listed:
  • Bernhard Pellens

    (ist Inhaber des Lehrstuhls für Internationale Unternehmensrechnung und Direktor des Instituts für Unternehmensführung (IfU) an der Ruhr-Universität)

  • Kai Lehmann

    (Anschrift: Ruhr-Universität Bochum)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Managementprognosen leisten einen wichtigen Beitrag zum Abbau von Informationsasymmetrien zwischen der Unternehmensleitung und den Stakeholdern. Insbesondere für Finanzanalysten sind die prospektiven Aussagen des Managements im Rahmen der Prognoseberichterstattung bei der Bestimmung des Unternehmenswertes essenziell. Inwiefern Finanzanalysten den Managementprognosen unterjährig folgen und die Prognosequalität beider Gruppen bezüglich der Schätzung wesentlicher Erfolgsgrößen korreliert, ist bisher wenig erforscht. In dem vorliegenden Beitrag wird diesen Fragen nachgegangen, indem das Zusammenspiel von Managementprognosen und den Schätzungen von Finanzanalysten untersucht wird. Es zeigt sich, dass in gesamtwirtschaftlichen Aufschwungs- beziehungsweise Boomphasen ein relativ vorsichtiges Prognoseverhalten seitens des Managements die Regel ist und mit ebenso pessimistischen Analystenschätzungen einhergeht. In Krisenzeiten hingegen kommt es seitens der Unternehmensleitung zu einer relativ exakten Vorhersage wesentlicher Erfolgsgrößen. Ebenso fallen die Schätzungen der Analysten in diesen Phasen weniger pessimistisch aus. Datengrundlage für die Untersuchung bilden die Prognoseberichte aus den Quartals- und Geschäftsberichten der Unternehmen des HDAX der Jahre 2005 bis 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernhard Pellens & Kai Lehmann, 2012. "Managementprognosen und Analystenschätzungen — Eine deskriptive Analyse auf Basis der HDAX-Unternehmen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 64(8), pages 873-892, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sjobre:v:64:y:2012:i:8:d:10.1007_bf03372874
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03372874
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/BF03372874
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/BF03372874?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henselmann, Klaus & Klein, Martin & Raschdorf, Florian, 2010. "Prognoseeignung des Prognoseberichts? Eine empirisch gestützte Diskussion vor dem Hintergrund aktueller Änderungen im DRS 15 und der geplanten Umsetzung des ED Management Commentary," Working Papers in Accounting Valuation Auditing 2010-2, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Accounting and Auditing.
    2. Julie Cotter & Irem Tuna & Peter D. Wysocki, 2006. "Expectations Management and Beatable Targets: How Do Analysts React to Explicit Earnings Guidance?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(3), pages 593-624, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huang, Wei, 2016. "The use of management forecasts to dampen analysts' expectations by Chinese listed firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 263-272.
    2. Ruth V. Aguilera & Kurt A. Desender & Mónica López-Puertas Lamy & Jun Ho Lee, 2017. "The governance impact of a changing investor landscape," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 48(2), pages 195-221, February.
    3. Kross, William J. & Ro, Byung T. & Suk, Inho, 2011. "Consistency in meeting or beating earnings expectations and management earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 37-57, February.
    4. Tuo, Ling & Rezaee, Zabihollah & Gao, Lei, 2024. "Is there a tradeoff between management earnings forecasts and sustainability reporting?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Ryan D. Leece & Todd P. White, 2017. "The effects of firms’ information environment on analysts’ herding behavior," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 503-525, February.
    6. Chen, Heng & Li, Xu & Pei, Guangyu & Xin, Qian, 2024. "Heterogeneous overreaction in expectation formation: Evidence and theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    7. Zachary Kaplan & Xiumin Martin & Yifang Xie, 2021. "Truncating Optimism," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(5), pages 1827-1884, December.
    8. E. Cheynel & M. Liu-Watts, 2020. "A simple structural estimator of disclosure costs," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 201-245, March.
    9. Yangyang Chen & Jeffrey Ng & Xin Yang, 2021. "Talk Less, Learn More: Strategic Disclosure in Response to Managerial Learning from the Options Market," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(5), pages 1609-1649, December.
    10. Sherry Fang Li, 2023. "The Incidence Of Expectations Management In The Post-Regulation Fair Disclosure Period," Accounting & Taxation, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 15(1), pages 105-116.
    11. SHIRABE, Yuji & 調, 勇二, 2017. "Market Overreaction to Bad News and Share Repurchase: Evidence from Japan," Working Paper Series 215, Management Innovation Research Center, School of Business Administration, Hitotsubashi University Business School.
    12. Billings, M.B. & Jennings, R. & Lev, B., 2013. "On guidance and volatility," Research Memorandum 039, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    13. Philip T. Sinnadurai, 2008. "Voluntary Disclosure of Good and Bad Earnings News in a Low Litigation Setting," Accounting Perspectives, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(4), pages 317-340, November.
    14. Hrazdil, Karel & Li, Xin & Suwanyangyuan, Nattavut, 2022. "CEO happiness and forecasting," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    15. Lisa M. Gaynor & Andrea S. Kelton, 2014. "The effects of analyst forecasts and earnings trends on perceptions of management forecast credibility," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 54(1), pages 189-210, March.
    16. Sherry Fang Li, 2019. "Capital Market Consequences Of Expectations Management In The Postregulation Fair Disclosure Period," Accounting & Taxation, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 11(1), pages 11-20.
    17. Youngdeok Lim & Hyung Il Oh, 2022. "Do Firms Learn from Pre‐announcement Experience? Evidence from Optimistic Pre‐announcements and Market Responses," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 58(2), pages 365-392, June.
    18. Ning Jia, 2019. "Corporate innovation strategy and disclosure policy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 253-288, January.
    19. Nisan Langberg & K. Sivaramakrishnan, 2010. "Voluntary Disclosures and Analyst Feedback," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 603-646, June.
    20. Georgakopoulos, Georgios & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Huang, Chen & Patsika, Victoria, 2022. "The impact of IFRS adoption on IPOs management earnings forecasts in Australia," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    G10; G17; G30; M41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sjobre:v:64:y:2012:i:8:d:10.1007_bf03372874. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.