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A new algorithm for zero-modified models applied to citation counts

Author

Listed:
  • Marzieh Shahmandi

    (University of Wolverhampton)

  • Paul Wilson

    (University of Wolverhampton)

  • Mike Thelwall

    (University of Wolverhampton)

Abstract

Finding statistical models for citation count data is important for those seeking to understand the citing process or when using regression to identify factors that associate with citation rates. As sets of citation counts often include more or less zeros (uncited articles) than would be expected under the base distribution, it is essential to deal appropriately with them. This article proposes a new algorithm to fit zero-modified versions of discretised log-normal, hooked power-law and Weibull models to citation count data from 23 different Scopus categories from 2012. The new algorithm allows the standard errors of all parameter estimates to be calculated, and hence also confidence intervals and p-values. This algorithm can also estimate negative zero-modification parameters corresponding to zero-deflation (fewer uncited articles than expected). The results find no universal best model for the 23 categories. A given dataset may be zero-inflated relative to one model, but zero-deflated relative to another. We suggest circumstances in which one of the models under consideration may be the best fitting model.

Suggested Citation

  • Marzieh Shahmandi & Paul Wilson & Mike Thelwall, 2020. "A new algorithm for zero-modified models applied to citation counts," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 125(2), pages 993-1010, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:125:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11192-020-03654-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-020-03654-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michal Brzezinski, 2015. "Power laws in citation distributions: evidence from Scopus," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 103(1), pages 213-228, April.
    2. Wilson, Paul, 2015. "The misuse of the Vuong test for non-nested models to test for zero-inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 51-53.
    3. Dietz, Ekkehart & Bohning, Dankmar, 2000. "On estimation of the Poisson parameter in zero-modified Poisson models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 441-459, October.
    4. Thelwall, Mike, 2016. "Are there too many uncited articles? Zero inflated variants of the discretised lognormal and hooked power law distributions," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 622-633.
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    Cited by:

    1. Katchanov, Yurij L. & Markova, Yulia V. & Shmatko, Natalia A., 2023. "Uncited papers in the structure of scientific communication," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2).
    2. Katiane S. Conceição & Marinho G. Andrade & Francisco Louzada & Nalini Ravishanker, 2022. "Characterizations and generalizations of the negative binomial distribution," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 1255-1286, July.

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