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Good countries or good projects? Comparing macro and micro correlates of World Bank and Asian Development Bank project performance

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Listed:
  • David Bulman

    (Harvard Kennedy School
    World Bank)

  • Walter Kolkma

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Aart Kraay

    (World Bank)

Abstract

This paper examines the micro and macro correlates of aid project outcomes in a sample of 3797 World Bank projects and 1322 Asian Development Bank projects. We find that project outcomes vary much more within countries than between countries: only 10–25 % of the variation in project outcomes is between countries, and the rest is within countries. Among country-level macro variables, GDP growth and the policy environment are significantly positively correlated with project outcomes. Among project-level micro variables, shorter project duration and the presence of additional financing are significantly correlated with better project outcomes. In addition, the track record of the project manager in delivering successful projects is highly significantly correlated with project outcomes. We find few significant differences between the two institutions in the relationship between these variables and project outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • David Bulman & Walter Kolkma & Aart Kraay, 2017. "Good countries or good projects? Comparing macro and micro correlates of World Bank and Asian Development Bank project performance," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 335-363, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:revint:v:12:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11558-016-9256-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11558-016-9256-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mirko Heinzel & Andrea Liese, 2021. "Managing performance and winning trust: how World Bank staff shape recipient performance," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 625-653, July.
    2. Bedasso, Biniam, 2024. "Ministerial musical chairs: Does leadership turnover undermine the effectiveness of World Bank education aid?," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    3. Eilers, Yota & Kluve, Jochen & Langbein, Jörg & Reiners, Lennart, 2023. "Volume, Risk, Complexity: What Makes Development Finance Projects Succeed or Fail?," IZA Discussion Papers 16691, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Philip Keefer & Christopher Kilby, 2021. "Introduction to the special issue: In memoriam Stephen Knack," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 473-493, July.
    5. Martorano, Bruno & Metzger, Laura & Sanfilippo, Marco, 2020. "Chinese development assistance and household welfare in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Steffen Eckhard & Vytautas Jankauskas & Elena Leuschner & Ian Burton & Tilman Kerl & Rita Sevastjanova, 2023. "The performance of international organizations: a new measure and dataset based on computational text analysis of evaluation reports," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 753-776, October.
    7. McLean, Elena V., 2023. "Looking for advice: The politics of consulting services procurement in the World Bank," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    8. Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2021. "Thirty‐year assessment of Asian Development Bank's forecasts," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(2), pages 18-40, November.
    9. Francesca G. Caselli & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2020. "Aid Effectiveness in Fragile States," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 158, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    10. Heinzel, Mirko & Reinsberg, Bernhard, 2024. "Trust funds and the sub-national effectiveness of development aid: evidence from the World Bank," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122593, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi, 2021. "Delegation of implementation in project aid," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 655-687, July.
    12. Ryan C. Briggs, 2020. "Results from single-donor analyses of project aid success seem to generalize pretty well across donors," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 947-963, October.
    13. Terence Wood & Sabit Otor & Matthew Dornan, 2022. "Why are aid projects less effective in the Pacific?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 40(3), May.
    14. Terence Wood & Sabit Otor & Matthew Dornan, 2020. "Australian aid projects: What works, where projects work and how Australia compares," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 171-186, May.
    15. Hauke Feil, 2021. "The cancer of corruption and World Bank project performance: Is there a connection?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 39(3), pages 381-397, May.
    16. Heinzel, Mirko & Reinsberg, Bernhard, 2024. "Trust funds and the sub-national effectiveness of development aid: Evidence from the World Bank," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).

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