IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/revint/v11y2016i1p25-58.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Credibility, preferences, and bilateral investment treaties

Author

Listed:
  • Seok-ju Cho
  • Yong Kim
  • Cheol-Sung Lee

Abstract

When is a commitment mechanism employed as a solution to a time-inconsistency problem? This article provides a nuanced answer to this question by studying bilateral investment treaties (BITs). We develop a game theoretic model of BIT signing in which the government of a capital-importing country and an investor from a capital-exporting country strategically interact. The model predicts that, on the one hand, when host states highly value foreign direct investment (FDI), the likelihood of BITs increases as their judicial institutions lack credibility. On the other hand, when their preferences for FDI are only modest, the likelihood of BITs increases as their judicial institutions become more credible. We employ Cox proportional hazard models to test our hypotheses, and the results largely support our theory. Our findings have broad implications for the large literature on credible commitment, which has paid insufficient attention to the interplay between preferences and credibility. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Seok-ju Cho & Yong Kim & Cheol-Sung Lee, 2016. "Credibility, preferences, and bilateral investment treaties," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 25-58, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:revint:v:11:y:2016:i:1:p:25-58
    DOI: 10.1007/s11558-015-9218-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11558-015-9218-8
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11558-015-9218-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pevehouse, Jon & Russett, Bruce, 2006. "Democratic International Governmental Organizations Promote Peace," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 969-1000, October.
    2. Andrew T. Guzman & Beth A. Simmons, 2005. "Power Plays and Capacity Constraints: The Selection of Defendants in World Trade Organization Disputes," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 557-598, June.
    3. Markusen, James R. & Venables, Anthony J., 1999. "Foreign direct investment as a catalyst for industrial development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 335-356, February.
    4. Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2004. "The impact of bilateral investment treaties on foreign direct investment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 788-804, December.
    5. Bruce A. Blonigen, 2019. "In Search of Substitution Between Foreign Production and Exports," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 9, pages 293-323, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Simmons, Beth A. & Danner, Allison, 2010. "Credible Commitments and the International Criminal Court," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 225-256, April.
    7. Kobrin, Stephen J., 1987. "Testing the bargaining hypothesis in the manufacturing sector in developing countries," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(4), pages 609-638, October.
    8. Elkins, Zachary & Guzman, Andrew T. & Simmons, Beth A., 2006. "Competing for Capital: The Diffusion of Bilateral Investment Treaties, 1960–2000," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 811-846, October.
    9. Pandya, Sonal S., 2010. "Labor Markets and the Demand for Foreign Direct Investment," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(3), pages 389-409, July.
    10. Moravcsik, Andrew, 2000. "The Origins of Human Rights Regimes: Democratic Delegation in Postwar Europe," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(2), pages 217-252, April.
    11. Jensen, Nathan M., 2003. "Democratic Governance and Multinational Corporations: Political Regimes and Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 587-616, July.
    12. Neumayer, Eric & Spess, Laura, 2005. "Do bilateral investment treaties increase foreign direct investment to developing countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1567-1585, October.
    13. Srividya Jandhyala & Witold J. Henisz & Edward D. Mansfield, 2011. "Three Waves of BITs," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 55(6), pages 1047-1073, December.
    14. Garrett, Geoffrey, 1995. "Capital mobility, trade, and the domestic politics of economic policy," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 657-687, October.
    15. Allee, Todd & Peinhardt, Clint, 2011. "Contingent Credibility: The Impact of Investment Treaty Violations on Foreign Direct Investment," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 401-432, July.
    16. Jennifer Tobin & Susan Rose-Ackerman, 2011. "When BITs have some bite: The political-economic environment for bilateral investment treaties," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-32, March.
    17. Mansfield, Edward D. & Pevehouse, Jon C., 2006. "Democratization and International Organizations," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 137-167, January.
    18. Sarah M. Brooks & Marcus J. Kurtz, 2007. "Capital, Trade, and the Political Economies of Reform," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(4), pages 703-720, October.
    19. Tim Büthe & Helen V. Milner, 2008. "The Politics of Foreign Direct Investment into Developing Countries: Increasing FDI through International Trade Agreements?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 741-762, October.
    20. Simmons, Beth A. & Elkins, Zachary, 2004. "The Globalization of Liberalization: Policy Diffusion in the International Political Economy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 171-189, February.
    21. Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2002. "Determinants of FDI in developing countries: has globalization changed the rules of the game?," Kiel Working Papers 1122, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    22. Bernhard, William & Leblang, David, 1999. "Democratic Institutions and Exchange-rate Commitments," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 71-97, January.
    23. KH Zhang, 2001. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Economic Growth? Evidence From East Asia And Latin America," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(2), pages 175-185, April.
    24. Oona Hathaway, "undated". "The Cost of Commitment," Yale Law School John M. Olin Center for Studies in Law, Economics, and Public Policy Working Paper Series yale_lepp-1003, Yale Law School John M. Olin Center for Studies in Law, Economics, and Public Policy.
    25. Li, Quan & Resnick, Adam, 2003. "Reversal of Fortunes: Democratic Institutions and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to Developing Countries," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 175-211, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Edmund J. Malesky & Helen V. Milner, 2021. "Fostering global value chains through international agreements: Evidence from Vietnam," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 443-482, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Soumyajit Mazumder, 2016. "Can I stay a BIT longer? The effect of bilateral investment treaties on political survival," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 477-521, December.
    2. Madhav Joshi & Jason Michael Quinn, 2020. "Civil war termination and foreign direct investment, 1989–2012," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(4), pages 451-470, July.
    3. Zhiyuan Wang & Hyunjin Youn, 2018. "Locating the External Source of Enforceability: Alliances, Bilateral Investment Treaties, and Foreign Direct Investment," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 99(1), pages 80-96, March.
    4. Josef C. Brada & Zdenek Drabek & Ichiro Iwasaki, 2021. "Does Investor Protection Increase Foreign Direct Investment? A Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 34-70, February.
    5. Edmund J. Malesky & Helen V. Milner, 2021. "Fostering global value chains through international agreements: Evidence from Vietnam," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 443-482, November.
    6. Timm Betz & Amy Pond & Weiwen Yin, 2021. "Investment agreements and the fragmentation of firms across countries," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 755-791, October.
    7. Fangjin Ye, 2020. "The impact of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) on collective labor rights in developing countries," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 899-921, October.
    8. Cao, Thi Hong Vinh & Lu, Thi Thu Trang & Nguyen, Thi Viet Hoa, 2014. "The Impact of Heterogeneous Bilateral Investment Treaties (BIT) on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to Vietnam," Papers 916, World Trade Institute.
    9. Gamso, Jonas & Nelson, Roy C., 2019. "Does partnering with the World Bank shield investors from political risks in less developed countries?," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1-1.
    10. Timm Betz & Andrew Kerner, 2016. "The influence of interest: Real US interest rates and bilateral investment treaties," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 419-448, December.
    11. Jay Dixon & Paul Alexander Haslam, 2016. "Does the Quality of Investment Protection Affect FDI Flows to Developing Countries? Evidence from Latin America," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1080-1108, August.
    12. Glen Biglaiser & Hoon Lee & Joseph L Staats, 2017. "The effects of political and legal constraints on expropriation in natural resource and manufacturing sectors," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 311-333, December.
    13. Tag, Mehmet Nasih, 2021. "Judicial institutions of property rights protection and foreign direct investment inflows," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. Post, Alison E. & Murillo, María Victoria, 2016. "How Investor Portfolios Shape Regulatory Outcomes: Privatized Infrastructure After Crises," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 328-345.
    15. Trey Billing & Andrew D. Lugg, 2019. "Conflicted Capital: The Effect of Civil Conflict on Patterns of BIT Signing," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(2), pages 373-404, February.
    16. Yoram Z. Haftel & Alexander Thompson, 2018. "When do states renegotiate investment agreements? The impact of arbitration," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 25-48, March.
    17. Jonas Tallberg & Thomas Sommerer & Theresa Squatrito, 2016. "Democratic memberships in international organizations: Sources of institutional design," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 59-87, March.
    18. Simon Hartmann & Thomas Lindner & Jakob Müllner & Jonas Puck, 2022. "Beyond the nation-state: Anchoring supranational institutions in international business research," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 53(6), pages 1282-1306, August.
    19. Joon Hyeok Lee, 2024. "Consecutive decentralization: The effect of central bank independence on capital account liberalization," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 809-831, July.
    20. Axel Berger & Matthias Busse & Peter Nunnenkamp & Martin Roy, 2013. "Do trade and investment agreements lead to more FDI? Accounting for key provisions inside the black box," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 247-275, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bilateral investment treaties; Foreign direct investment; Credibility; Commitment; F53; F55; F59;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements
    • F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:revint:v:11:y:2016:i:1:p:25-58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.