IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/qualqt/v53y2019i1d10.1007_s11135-018-0759-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Patterns and evolution of consumer debt: evidence from latent transition models

Author

Listed:
  • Piotr Białowolski

    (University of Turin
    Harvard University
    The University of Dąbrowa Górnicza)

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates patterns in the use of credit and their temporal evolution against socio-economic and behavioural traits of borrowers. Debt holder segments were identified from data contained in three waves (2011, 2013 and 2015) of the biennial panel study of Polish households—Social Diagnosis. Analysis supported claims for a differential role of socio-economic characteristics and behavioural factors in evolution of segments of credit users. The analysis conducted with latent transition modelling confirmed intertemporal stability of borrowing patterns. At the same time, it was revealed that: (1) some groups of borrowers—mortgage holders in particular—were likely to stay in their respective groups, while others—especially those borrowing from outside the banking sector and those indebted for other purposes—were more likely to transition; (2) mortgages and loans for household run business were strongly linked to household socio-economic characteristics; (3) loans for durables, renovation and, most notably, consumption were less driven by age of the household head, whereas the ability to manage income was clearly pertinent for transition to those groups; (4) the group of overindebted consumers, although not particularly large, was characterized by high probability of remaining indebted with very low chances of escaping debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Piotr Białowolski, 2019. "Patterns and evolution of consumer debt: evidence from latent transition models," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 389-415, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:53:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11135-018-0759-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-018-0759-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11135-018-0759-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11135-018-0759-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thaler, Richard H & Shefrin, H M, 1981. "An Economic Theory of Self-Control," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 392-406, April.
    2. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Giuseppe Bertola & Stefan Hochguertel, 2007. "Household Debt and Credit: Economic Issues and Data Problems," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 36(2), pages 115-146, July.
    4. Jody Overland & Christopher D. Carroll & David N. Weil, 2000. "Saving and Growth with Habit Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 341-355, June.
    5. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Consumption and Capital Market Imperfections: An International Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    6. Stephen P. Zeldes, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 275-298.
    7. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    8. Viaud, Jean & Roland-Levy, Christine, 2000. "A positional and representational analysis of consumption. Households when facing debt and credit," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 411-432, August.
    9. Richard H. Thaler, 2008. "Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 15-25, 01-02.
    10. Martin J. Browning, 1989. "The Intertemporal Allocation of Expenditure on Non-durables, Services, and Durables," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 22(1), pages 22-36, February.
    11. Hall, Robert E & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 461-481, March.
    12. Richard H. Thaler, 2008. "Commentary—Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice: Anatomy of a Failure," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 12-14, 01-02.
    13. Giuseppe Bertola & Richard Disney & Charles Grant (ed.), 2006. "The Economics of Consumer Credit," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262026015, April.
    14. Jonathan A. Parker & Bruce Preston, 2005. "Precautionary Saving and Consumption Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1119-1143, September.
    15. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1985. "Consumer Durables and the Real Interest Rate," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 353-362, August.
    16. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    17. Ngwenya, Mthunzi A. & Paas, Leonard J., 2012. "Lifecycle effects on consumer financial product portfolios in South Africa: An exploratory analysis of four ethnic groups," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 8-18.
    18. Gunnarsson, Jonas & Wahlund, Richard, 1997. "Household financial strategies in Sweden: An exploratory study," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 201-233, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Acconcia & Maria Carannante & Michelangelo Misuraca & Germana Scepi, 2020. "Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty with Latent Transition Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 1-31, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Kevin Z. & D. Meilke, Karl & Turvey, Calum, 1999. "Income risk and farm consumption behavior," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 173-183, March.
    2. Rong Hai & Dirk Krueger & Andrew Postlewaite, 2020. "On the welfare cost of consumption fluctuations in the presence of memorable goods," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1177-1214, November.
    3. Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2021. "Consumer inflation expectations, income changes and economic downturns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 784-807, September.
    4. Piotr Białowolski, 2018. "Hard Times! How do Households Cope with Financial Difficulties? Evidence from the Swiss Household Panel," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 147-161, August.
    5. Orazio P. Attanasio, 1998. "Consumption Demand," NBER Working Papers 6466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Klos, Alexander & Rottke, Simon, 2013. "Saving and Consumption When Children Move Out," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79786, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Jawadi, Fredj & Soparnot, Richard & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "Assessing financial and housing wealth effects through the lens of a nonlinear framework," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 840-850.
    8. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2004. "Consumption Theory," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 23, April.
    9. Hubbard, R. Glenn & Skinner, Jonathan & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1994. "The importance of precautionary motives in explaining individual and aggregate saving," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 59-125, June.
    10. Rong Hai & Andrew Postlewaite & Dirk Krueger, 2013. "On the Welfare Cost of Consumption Fluctuations in the Presence of Memorable Goods, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-012, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 15 Apr 2014.
    11. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 2010. "Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 693-751, September.
    12. Attanasio, Orazio P., 1995. "The intertemporal allocation of consumption: theory and evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 39-56, June.
    13. repec:ptu:bdpart:r201610 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Mervyn A. King, 1983. "The Economics of Saving," NBER Working Papers 1247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Milkman, Katherine L. & Beshears, John, 2009. "Mental accounting and small windfalls: Evidence from an online grocer," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 384-394, August.
    16. Pemberton, James, 1997. "Modelling and measuring income uncertainty in life cycle models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 81-98, January.
    17. Jose Luengo-Prado, Maria, 2006. "Durables, nondurables, down payments and consumption excesses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1509-1539, October.
    18. Alessandra Guariglia & Byung‐Yeon Kim, 2003. "The Effects of Consumption Variability on Saving: Evidence from a Panel of Muscovite Households," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(3), pages 357-377, July.
    19. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption : Saving decisions : Testing the finite horizon model," Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    20. Juwon Seo, 2018. "Randomization Tests for Equality in Dependence Structure," Papers 1811.02105, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer debt; Segmentation; Latent transition models; Socio-economic influences; Behavioural traits;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:53:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11135-018-0759-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.