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Resource price trends and development prospects

Author

Listed:
  • Kirk Hamilton

    (The World Bank)

  • Katharine Bolt

    (University of East Anglia)

Abstract

. If natural resource prices follow exogenous paths, then future resource price changes must be reflected in current measures of resource depletion, as shown by Vincent et al. (1997). This result is extended to the measurement of income and saving in a small resource exporting economy. A precise formula for net (genuine) saving is derived when resource prices grow exogenously at the international interest rate. Empirical results are presented for over 100 countries and a dozen resource commodities, using historical real price trends to forecast future prices. Reductions in saving in excess of 1% of GNI are observed for over 20 countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirk Hamilton & Katharine Bolt, 2004. "Resource price trends and development prospects," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 3(2), pages 85-97, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:portec:v:3:y:2004:i:2:d:10.1007_s10258-004-0035-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10258-004-0035-x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nick Hanley & Louis Dupuy & Eoin McLaughlin, 2015. "Genuine Savings And Sustainability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 779-806, September.
    2. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2010. "Why do many resource-rich countries have negative genuine saving?: Anticipation of better times or rapacious rent seeking," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 28-44, January.
    3. Youmanli Ouoba, 2023. "Testing the necessary conditions for sustainability in the mining sector in Burkina Faso," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(1), pages 1-12, January.
    4. Kirk Hamilton & John Hartwick, 2008. "Oil Stock Discovery And Dutch Disease," Working Paper 1163, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    5. Mardones, Cristian & del Rio, Ricardo, 2019. "Correction of Chilean GDP for natural capital depreciation and environmental degradation caused by copper mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 143-152.
    6. Kirk Hamilton & Giles Atkinson, 2013. "Resource Discoveries, Learning and National Income Accounting," GRI Working Papers 117, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    7. Ferreira, Susana & Vincent, Jeffrey R, 2005. "Genuine Savings: Leading Indicator of Sustainable Development?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(3), pages 737-754, April.
    8. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2007. "Genuine Saving and the Voracity Effect," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/38, European University Institute.
    9. Rintaro Yamaguchi & Masayuki Sato & Kazuhiro Ueta, 2016. "Measuring Regional Wealth and Assessing Sustainable Development: An Application to a Disaster-Torn Region in Japan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 365-389, October.
    10. Frederick Ploeg, 2011. "Rapacious Resource Depletion, Excessive Investment and Insecure Property Rights: A Puzzle," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(1), pages 105-128, January.
    11. Kirk Hamilton & Giovanni Ruta & Liaila Tajibaeva, 2006. "Capital Accumulation and Resource Depletion: A Hartwick Rule Counterfactual," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 34(4), pages 517-533, August.
    12. Yamaguchi, Rintaro & Managi, Shunsuke, 2019. "Backward- and Forward-looking Shadow Prices in Inclusive Wealth Accounting: An Example of Renewable Energy Capital," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 337-349.
    13. Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2010. "Rapacious Resource Depletion, Excessive Investment and Insecure Property Rights," CESifo Working Paper Series 2981, CESifo.

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