IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/pharme/v37y2019i12d10.1007_s40273-019-00822-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Performance of the UKPDS Outcomes Model 2 for Predicting Death and Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus from a German Population-Based Cohort

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Laxy

    (Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management, Helmholtz Zentrum München (GmbH)
    German Center for Diabetes Research, DZD)

  • Verena Maria Schöning

    (Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management, Helmholtz Zentrum München (GmbH)
    Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München)

  • Christoph Kurz

    (Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management, Helmholtz Zentrum München (GmbH)
    German Center for Diabetes Research, DZD)

  • Rolf Holle

    (Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management, Helmholtz Zentrum München (GmbH)
    German Center for Diabetes Research, DZD)

  • Annette Peters

    (Institute of Epidemiology II, Helmholtz Zentrum München (GmbH))

  • Christa Meisinger

    (Institute of Epidemiology II, Helmholtz Zentrum München (GmbH))

  • Wolfgang Rathmann

    (Institute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center)

  • Kristin Mühlenbruch

    (German Institute of Human Nutrition)

  • Katharina Kähm

    (Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management, Helmholtz Zentrum München (GmbH)
    German Center for Diabetes Research, DZD)

Abstract

Background and Objective Accurate prediction of relevant outcomes is important for targeting therapies and to support health economic evaluations of healthcare interventions in patients with diabetes. The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk equations are some of the most frequently used risk equations. This study aims to analyze the calibration and discrimination of the updated UKPDS risk equations as implemented in the UKPDS Outcomes Model 2 (UKPDS-OM2) for predicting cardiovascular (CV) events and death in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) from population-based German samples. Methods Analyses are based on data of 456 individuals diagnosed with T2DM who participated in two population-based studies in southern Germany (KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg)-A: 1997/1998, n = 178; KORA-S4: 1999–2001, n = 278). We compared the participants’ 10-year observed incidence of mortality, CV mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke with the predicted event rate of the UKPDS-OM2. The model’s calibration was evaluated by Greenwood–Nam–D’Agostino tests and discrimination was evaluated by C-statistics. Results Of the 456 participants with T2DM (mean age 65 years, mean diabetes duration 8 years, 56% male), over the 10-year follow-up time 129 died (61 due to CV events), 64 experienced an MI, and 46 a stroke. The UKPDS-OM2 significantly over-predicted mortality and CV mortality by 25% and 28%, respectively (Greenwood–Nam–D’Agostino tests: p

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Laxy & Verena Maria Schöning & Christoph Kurz & Rolf Holle & Annette Peters & Christa Meisinger & Wolfgang Rathmann & Kristin Mühlenbruch & Katharina Kähm, 2019. "Performance of the UKPDS Outcomes Model 2 for Predicting Death and Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus from a German Population-Based Cohort," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 37(12), pages 1485-1494, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:pharme:v:37:y:2019:i:12:d:10.1007_s40273-019-00822-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s40273-019-00822-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40273-019-00822-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40273-019-00822-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Willis & Pierre Johansen & Andreas Nilsson & Christian Asseburg, 2017. "Validation of the Economic and Health Outcomes Model of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (ECHO-T2DM)," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 375-396, March.
    2. Adam Lundqvist & Katarina Steen Carlsson & Pierre Johansen & Emelie Andersson & Michael Willis, 2014. "Validation of the IHE Cohort Model of Type 2 Diabetes and the Impact of Choice of Macrovascular Risk Equations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(10), pages 1-12, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pierre Johansen & Jonas Håkan-Bloch & Aiden R. Liu & Peter G. Bech & Sofie Persson & Lawrence A. Leiter, 2019. "Cost Effectiveness of Once-Weekly Semaglutide Versus Once-Weekly Dulaglutide in the Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes in Canada," PharmacoEconomics - Open, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 537-550, December.
    2. Michael Willis & Pierre Johansen & Andreas Nilsson & Christian Asseburg, 2017. "Validation of the Economic and Health Outcomes Model of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (ECHO-T2DM)," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 375-396, March.
    3. Sandra Lopes & Pierre Johansen & Mark Lamotte & Phil McEwan & Anamaria-Vera Olivieri & Volker Foos, 2020. "External Validation of the Core Obesity Model to Assess the Cost-Effectiveness of Weight Management Interventions," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 38(10), pages 1123-1133, October.
    4. Michael Willis & Adam Fridhammar & Jens Gundgaard & Andreas Nilsson & Pierre Johansen, 2020. "Comparing the Cohort and Micro-Simulation Modeling Approaches in Cost-Effectiveness Modeling of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Case Study of the IHE Diabetes Cohort Model and the Economics and Health Out," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 38(9), pages 953-969, September.
    5. Joan Gil & Antoni Sicras-Mainar & Eugenio Zucchelli, 2018. "Uncontrolled diabetes and health care utilisation: panel data evidence from Spain," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 19(6), pages 785-795, July.
    6. Michael Willis & Christian Asseburg & April Slee & Andreas Nilsson & Cheryl Neslusan, 2021. "Macrovascular Risk Equations Based on the CANVAS Program," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 447-461, April.
    7. Nasuh C. Büyükkaramikli & Maureen P. M. H. Rutten-van Mölken & Johan L. Severens & Maiwenn Al, 2019. "TECH-VER: A Verification Checklist to Reduce Errors in Models and Improve Their Credibility," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 37(11), pages 1391-1408, November.
    8. Åsa Ericsson & Divina Glah & Maria Lorenzi & Jeroen P Jansen & Adam Fridhammar, 2018. "Cost-effectiveness of liraglutide versus lixisenatide as add-on therapies to basal insulin in type 2 diabetes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Åsa Ericsson & Adam Lundqvist, 2017. "Cost Effectiveness of Insulin Degludec Plus Liraglutide (IDegLira) in a Fixed Combination for Uncontrolled Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Sweden," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 237-248, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:pharme:v:37:y:2019:i:12:d:10.1007_s40273-019-00822-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.