IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v98y2019i3d10.1007_s11069-018-3557-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Land use change increases flood hazard: a multi-modelling approach to assess change in flood characteristics driven by socio-economic land use change scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Jean Hounkpè

    (University of Abomey-Calavi
    University of Abomey-Calavi)

  • Bernd Diekkrüger

    (University of Bonn)

  • Abel A. Afouda

    (University of Abomey-Calavi
    University of Abomey-Calavi)

  • Luc Olivier Crepin Sintondji

    (University of Abomey-Calavi)

Abstract

We analysed in the work how change in land use/land cover influences on flood characteristics (frequency and magnitude) using a model inter-comparison approach, statistical methods and two land use scenarios (land use scenario A and land use scenario B) for three time horizons. The derived land use maps from these scenarios were considered as forcing inputs to two physically based hydrological models (SWAT and WaSiM). The generalized Pareto distribution combined with the Poisson distribution was used to compute flood frequency and magnitude. Under land use scenario A, croplands increase at the annual rate of 0.7% while under land use scenario B, it increases by 1.13% between 2003 and 2029. The expansion of croplands indubitably enhances flood risks. Although there was a general agreement about the sense of the variation, the magnitude of change in flood characteristics was highly influenced by the model type. The rate of increase in flood quantiles simulated from SWAT (0.36–1.3% for 10-year flood) was smaller than the corresponding magnitude of changes simulated from WaSiM (2.6–7.0% for 10-year flood) whatever the scenarios. The expansion of agricultural and pasture lands at the yearly rate of 0.7% under land use scenario A (respectively, 1.13% under land use scenario B) leads to an increase of 3.6% (respectively, 5.4%) in 10-year flood by considering WaSiM. This study is among the first of its kind to establish a strong statistical relation between flood severity/frequency and agricultural land expansion and natural vegetation reduction. The results of this study are relevant and useful to the scientific research community as well as the decision makers for framing appropriate policy decisions towards the management of extreme events and the land use planning/management in future in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Hounkpè & Bernd Diekkrüger & Abel A. Afouda & Luc Olivier Crepin Sintondji, 2019. "Land use change increases flood hazard: a multi-modelling approach to assess change in flood characteristics driven by socio-economic land use change scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(3), pages 1021-1050, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:98:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-018-3557-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3557-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-018-3557-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-018-3557-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hui Xu & Junlong Gao & Xinchun Yu & Qianqian Qin & Shiqiang Du & Jiahong Wen, 2024. "Assessment of Rainstorm Waterlogging Disaster Risk in Rapidly Urbanizing Areas Based on Land Use Scenario Simulation: A Case Study of Jiangqiao Town in Shanghai, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Peng Gao & Wei Gao & Nan Ke, 2021. "Assessing the impact of flood inundation dynamics on an urban environment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 1047-1072, October.
    3. Dino Collalti, 2024. "The Economic Dynamics After a Flood: Evidence from Satellite Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(9), pages 2401-2428, September.
    4. Muhammad Chrisna Satriagasa & Piyapong Tongdeenok & Naruemol Kaewjampa, 2023. "Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using SWAT and HEC-RAS Model under CMIP5 Climate Projection in Upper Nan Watershed, Thailand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-21, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giuseppe Maggio & Marina Mastrorillo & Nicholas J. Sitko, 2022. "Adapting to High Temperatures: Effect of Farm Practices and Their Adoption Duration on Total Value of Crop Production in Uganda," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 385-403, January.
    2. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    3. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    4. Vermaak, Herman Jacobus & Kusakana, Kanzumba & Koko, Sandile Philip, 2014. "Status of micro-hydrokinetic river technology in rural applications: A review of literature," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 625-633.
    5. Lucia de Strasser, 2017. "Calling for Nexus Thinking in Africa’s Energy Planning," ESP: Energy Scenarios and Policy 263161, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    6. Samuel Asante Gyamerah & Philip Ngare & Dennis Ikpe, 2018. "Regime-Switching Temperature Dynamics Model for Weather Derivatives," International Journal of Stochastic Analysis, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-15, July.
    7. Fernando M. Aragón & Francisco Oteiza & Juan Pablo Rud, 2018. "Climate change and agriculture: farmer adaptation to extreme heat," IFS Working Papers W18/06, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. Cook, Aaron M. & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob E. & Sesmero, Juan P., 2013. "How do African households adapt to climate change? Evidence from Malawi," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150507, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Bossa, A.Y. & Diekkrüger, B. & Giertz, S. & Steup, G. & Sintondji, L.O. & Agbossou, E.K. & Hiepe, C., 2012. "Modeling the effects of crop patterns and management scenarios on N and P loads to surface water and groundwater in a semi-humid catchment (West Africa)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 20-37.
    10. Jianhong Mu & Bruce McCarl & Anne Wein, 2013. "Adaptation to climate change: changes in farmland use and stocking rate in the U.S," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(6), pages 713-730, August.
    11. F. Jorge Bornemann & David P. Rowell & Barbara Evans & Dan J. Lapworth & Kamazima Lwiza & David M.J. Macdonald & John H. Marsham & Kindie Tesfaye & Matthew J. Ascott & Celia Way, 2019. "Future changes and uncertainty in decision-relevant measures of East African climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 365-384, October.
    12. Kondwani Msowoya & Kaveh Madani & Rahman Davtalab & Ali Mirchi & Jay R. Lund, 2016. "Climate Change Impacts on Maize Production in the Warm Heart of Africa," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5299-5312, November.
    13. Maria Waldinger, 2015. "The effects of climate change on internal and international migration: implications for developing countries," GRI Working Papers 192, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    14. Nyadzi, Emmanuel, 2016. "Climate Variability Since 1970 and Farmers’ Observations in Northern Ghana," Sustainable Agriculture Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 5(2).
    15. Chang, Yen-Chiang & Wang, Nannan, 2010. "Environmental regulations and emissions trading in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3356-3364, July.
    16. Alejandro del Pozo & Nidia Brunel-Saldias & Alejandra Engler & Samuel Ortega-Farias & Cesar Acevedo-Opazo & Gustavo A. Lobos & Roberto Jara-Rojas & Marco A. Molina-Montenegro, 2019. "Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies of Agriculture in Mediterranean-Climate Regions (MCRs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, May.
    17. Basanta Paudel & Yili Zhang & Jianzhong Yan & Raju Rai & Lanhui Li & Xue Wu & Prem Sagar Chapagain & Narendra Raj Khanal, 2020. "Farmers’ understanding of climate change in Nepal Himalayas: important determinants and implications for developing adaptation strategies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 485-502, February.
    18. José Antonio Rodriguez Martin & Juan Dios Jiménez Aguilera & José María Martín Martín & José Antonio Salinas Fernández, 2018. "Crisis in the Horn of Africa: Measurement of Progress Towards Millennium Development Goals," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 499-514, January.
    19. Sèyi Fridaïus Ulrich Vanvanhossou & Luc Hippolyte Dossa & Sven König, 2021. "Sustainable Management of Animal Genetic Resources to Improve Low-Input Livestock Production: Insights into Local Beninese Cattle Populations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-20, September.
    20. Boris O. K. Lokonon & Aly A. Mbaye, 2019. "Implications of Climate-Related Factors on Living Standards: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1404-1417.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:98:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-018-3557-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.