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Measuring the vulnerability of disadvantaged populations during hurricane evacuation

Author

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  • Ruijie Bian

    (Louisiana State University)

  • Chester G. Wilmot

    (Louisiana State University)

Abstract

In this paper, the extent to which the potentially transit-dependent portion of the population is vulnerable to the effects of a hurricane is estimated. The vulnerability of an area is defined as a composite measure of the proportion of disadvantaged persons, distance to transit, and flooding potential of people within an area. Unlike past studies which have focused on the vulnerability of the population in relatively large geographic areas, this study estimates the vulnerability of the population in 30 m × 30 m areas as defined in the National Land Cover Database. Population estimates from the national census at block level are disaggregated to the 30 m × 30 m units using a modified dasymetric mapping method in ArcGIS. The modified mapping method assigns population to each small areal unit using weights estimated by regressing the area of each land use in a census block against the population in that block. The coefficients in the regression analysis are “weights” associating population with each land use, and are used to distribute the population in each census block to the small geographic units based on their land use. In a case study of New Orleans, the results show that some areas are not well served by the existing transit pickup locations, as evidenced by their high vulnerability scores. Reassignment of pickup point locations to cover higher vulnerability score areas was investigated using integer linear programming. The results show that the optimally located pickup points serve areas with a larger average vulnerability score than the current pickup points in the study area. The method appears to be helpful in identifying vulnerable areas that, subsequently, could receive improved hurricane evacuation service in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruijie Bian & Chester G. Wilmot, 2017. "Measuring the vulnerability of disadvantaged populations during hurricane evacuation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(2), pages 691-707, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:85:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2598-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2598-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chongming Wang & Brent Yarnal, 2012. "The vulnerability of the elderly to hurricane hazards in Sarasota, Florida," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 349-373, September.
    2. Susan L. Cutter & Bryan J. Boruff & W. Lynn Shirley, 2003. "Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 84(2), pages 242-261, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Clar & Lukas Löschner & Ralf Nordbeck & Tatjana Fischer & Thomas Thaler, 2021. "Population dynamics and natural hazard risk management: conceptual and practical linkages for the case of Austrian policy making," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 1765-1796, January.
    2. Rachel Samuels & John E. Taylor & Neda Mohammadi, 2020. "Silence of the Tweets: incorporating social media activity drop-offs into crisis detection," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 1455-1477, August.
    3. Ding Wang & Kaan Ozbay & Zilin Bian, 2021. "Modeling and Analysis of Optimal Strategies for Leveraging Ride-Sourcing Services in Hurricane Evacuation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-22, April.
    4. Mehmet Baran Ulak & Ayberk Kocatepe & Lalitha Madhavi Konila Sriram & Eren Erman Ozguven & Reza Arghandeh, 2018. "Assessment of the hurricane-induced power outages from a demographic, socioeconomic, and transportation perspective," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1489-1508, July.
    5. Nejad, Mohammad Motalleb & Erdogan, Sevgi & Cirillo, Cinzia, 2021. "A statistical approach to small area synthetic population generation as a basis for carless evacuation planning," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

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