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Fuzzy—probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, case study: Tehran region, Iran

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  • Elham Boostan
  • Nadia Tahernia
  • Ali Shafiee

Abstract

This study presents a new model for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based on fuzzy sets theory. To accomplish seismic hazard analysis in the framework of fuzzy sets theory, all of the variables are first converted into Gaussian fuzzy sets using α-cut method. Then, fuzzified variables are used in seismic hazard analysis. Finally, the outputs are defuzzified using center of area method. The method is applied to Tehran region, Iran, and the fuzzy hazard curve is obtained for the site. The curve displays a fuzzy-probabilistic estimate of peak ground acceleration (PGA) over bedrock for the various return periods. PGA values for the region are estimated to be 0.18–0.20 g and 0.42–0.48 g for 50- and 475-year return periods, respectively. The results are given as fuzzy intervals which accommodate the vagueness inherent in the data. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Elham Boostan & Nadia Tahernia & Ali Shafiee, 2015. "Fuzzy—probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, case study: Tehran region, Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 525-541, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:77:y:2015:i:2:p:525-541
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1537-1
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    1. Jeremy Rohmer & Cedric Baudrit, 2011. "The use of the possibility theory to investigate the epistemic uncertainties within scenario-based earthquake risk assessments," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(3), pages 613-632, March.
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