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Evaluation of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model for tropical cyclone forecasts over the North Indian Ocean (NIO)

Author

Listed:
  • A. Das
  • Y. Rama Rao
  • Vijay Tallapragada
  • Zhan Zhang
  • S. Roy Bhowmik
  • Arun Sharma

Abstract

The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model, which was operational at the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction, was ported in India Meteorological Department (IMD) for its operational tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity forecast at Regional Specialised Meteorological Center, New Delhi. As part of the validation of the model, case studies of nine major TCs formed during the 2010–2013 seasons over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea of the North Indian Ocean were examined to test the ability of the model for Indian Seas. The model was integrated for 5-day forecasts with basic input from the IMD Global Forecast System spectral fields. The model’s basic fields as well as track and intensity errors are evaluated. The average track errors for these nine cases were found to be 83 km at 12 h, 135 km at 24 h, 176 km at 36 h, 186 km at 48 h, 233 at 60 h, and 319 km at 72 h. The HWRF track forecast errors displayed an improvement of 7, 27, 25 and 15 % over the IMD operational forecasts at 36, 48, 60, and 72 h, respectively. The model with high-resolution 3 km nest displayed a significant improvement in track forecasts with 12–46 % over the model with 9-km resolution nest. However, the HWRF model intensity forecasts displayed only marginal improvement of 5–8 % over the IMD operational forecasts. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • A. Das & Y. Rama Rao & Vijay Tallapragada & Zhan Zhang & S. Roy Bhowmik & Arun Sharma, 2015. "Evaluation of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model for tropical cyclone forecasts over the North Indian Ocean (NIO)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1205-1221, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:75:y:2015:i:2:p:1205-1221
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1362-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Mohapatra & B. Bandyopadhyay & D. Nayak, 2013. "Evaluation of operational tropical cyclone intensity forecasts over north Indian Ocean issued by India Meteorological Department," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 433-451, September.
    2. Sujata Pattanayak & U. Mohanty & S. Gopalakrishnan, 2012. "Simulation of very severe cyclone Mala over Bay of Bengal with HWRF modeling system," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(3), pages 1413-1437, September.
    3. Eric Hendricks & Melinda Peng, 2012. "Initialization of Tropical Cyclones in Numerical Prediction Systems," Chapters, in: Kieran Richard Hickey (ed.), Advances in Hurricane Research - Modelling, Meteorology, Preparedness and Impacts, IntechOpen.
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