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Evaluation of operational tropical cyclone intensity forecasts over north Indian Ocean issued by India Meteorological Department

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  • M. Mohapatra
  • B. Bandyopadhyay
  • D. Nayak

Abstract

India Meteorological Department (IMD) introduced the objective tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast valid for next 24 h over the north Indian Ocean (NIO) in 2003 and extended up to 72 h in 2009. In this study, an attempt is made to evaluate the TC intensity forecast issued by IMD during 2005–2011 (7 years) by calculating the absolute error (AE), root mean square error (RMSE) and skill in intensity forecast in terms of maximum sustained surface wind (MSW). The accuracy of TC intensity forecast has been analysed with respect to basin of formation (Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea and NIO as whole), season of formation (pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons), intensity of TCs (cyclonic storm and severe cyclonic storm or higher intensities) and type of track of TCs (climatological/straight moving and recurving/looping type). The study shows that the average AE (RMSE) in intensity forecast is about 11(14), 14(19) and 20(26) knots, respectively, for 24-, 48- and 72-h forecasts over the NIO as a whole during 2009–2011. The skill of intensity forecast is about 44 %(48 %), 60 %(58 %) and 60 %(65 %) for 24-, 48- and 72-h forecasts during 2009–2011 with respect to AE (RMSE). There is no significant improvement in terms of reduction in AE and RMSE of MSW forecast over the NIO like that over the northwest Pacific and northern Atlantic Oceans during 2005–2011. However, the skill in intensity forecast compared to persistence method has significantly improved by about 6 %(10 %) and 9 %(8 %) per year, respectively, for 12- and 24-h forecasts considering the AE (RMSE) during 2005–2011. There is also significant increasing trend in percentage of 24-h intensity forecasts with error of 10 knots or less during 2005–2011. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • M. Mohapatra & B. Bandyopadhyay & D. Nayak, 2013. "Evaluation of operational tropical cyclone intensity forecasts over north Indian Ocean issued by India Meteorological Department," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 433-451, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:68:y:2013:i:2:p:433-451
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0624-z
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. A. Das & Y. Rama Rao & Vijay Tallapragada & Zhan Zhang & S. Roy Bhowmik & Arun Sharma, 2015. "Evaluation of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model for tropical cyclone forecasts over the North Indian Ocean (NIO)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1205-1221, January.
    2. Xiaoyan Huang & Zhaoyong Guan & Li He & Ying Huang & Huasheng Zhao, 2016. "A PNN prediction scheme for local tropical cyclone intensity over the South China Sea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1249-1267, March.
    3. Xiaoyan Huang & Zhaoyong Guan & Li He & Ying Huang & Huasheng Zhao, 2016. "A PNN prediction scheme for local tropical cyclone intensity over the South China Sea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1249-1267, March.

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