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Probabilistic and sensitivity analyses of effective geotechnical parameters on rock slope stability: a case study of an urban area in northeast Iran

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  • Nahid Vatanpour
  • Mohammad Ghafoori
  • Hossein Talouki

Abstract

Despite the development of cities, risk assessment of rock slope stability in urban areas seems not to be growing at the same time. Mashhad is a developed city in northeast of Iran with a population of over 2.4 million. Given the closeness of the southern part of Mashhad to the Binaloud mountain ridge, the stability of the residential complexes that are being constructed in this area is a critical issue. Based on the fundamental roles of discontinuity properties and geo-mechanical parameters of rock mass, in this study we evaluated the most influential parameters of the rock slope stability and the failure probability of the slope near the Negin residential complex built on this ridge. According to the deterministic and probabilistic analyses, the north trench that was excavated for this residential complex could potentially cause plane failure. Moreover, the relationship between effective parameters on instability and their impact on safety factors were determined by sensitivity analysis. Therefore, slope dip, pore water pressure, and joint set dip were highly influential on the safety factor. There was also a nonlinear relationship between different parameters and safety in the studied area. This study presents an approach for risk assessment of rock slope stability in urban areas. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Nahid Vatanpour & Mohammad Ghafoori & Hossein Talouki, 2014. "Probabilistic and sensitivity analyses of effective geotechnical parameters on rock slope stability: a case study of an urban area in northeast Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1659-1678, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:71:y:2014:i:3:p:1659-1678
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0982-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paola Gattinoni, 2009. "Parametrical landslide modeling for the hydrogeological susceptibility assessment: from the Crati Valley to the Cavallerizzo landslide (Southern Italy)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 50(1), pages 161-178, July.
    2. T. Singh & A. Gulati & L. Dontha & V. Bhardwaj, 2008. "Evaluating cut slope failure by numerical analysis—a case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 47(2), pages 263-279, November.
    3. R. Sharma & B. Mehta & C. Jamwal, 2013. "Cut slope stability evaluation of NH-21 along Nalayan-Gambhrola section, Bilaspur district, Himachal Pradesh, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 249-270, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhaoxia Xu & Xiaoping Zhou & Qihu Qian, 2021. "The global sensitivity analysis of slope stability based on the least angle regression," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(3), pages 2361-2379, February.

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