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Real-time prediction of a severe cyclone ‘Jal’ over Bay of Bengal using a high-resolution mesoscale model WRF (ARW)

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  • C. Srinivas
  • V. Yesubabu
  • K. Hariprasad
  • S. Ramakrishna
  • B. Venkatraman

Abstract

Real-time predictions for the JAL severe cyclone formed in November 2010 over Bay of Bengal using a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF ARW) mesoscale model are presented. The predictions are evaluated with different initial conditions and assimilation of observations. The model is configured with two-way interactive nested domains and with fine resolution of 9 km for the region covering the Bay of Bengal. Simulations are performed with NCEP GFS 0.5° analysis and forecasts for initial/boundary conditions. To examine the impact of initial conditions on the forecasts, eleven real-time numerical experiments are conducted with model integration starting at 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC 4 Nov, 5 Nov and 00, 06, 12 UTC 6 Nov and all ending at 00 UTC 8 Nov. Results indicated that experiments starting prior to 18 UTC 04 Nov produced faster moving cyclones with higher intensity relative to the IMD estimates. The experiments with initial time at 18 UTC 04 Nov, 00 UTC 05 Nov and with integration length of 78 h and 72 h produced best prediction comparable with IMD estimates of the cyclone track and intensity parameters. To study the impact of observational assimilation on the model predictions FDDA, grid nudging is performed separately using (1) land-based automated weather stations (FDDAAWS), (2) MODIS temperature and humidity profiles (FDDAMODIS), and (3) ASCAT and OCEANSAT wind vectors (FDDAASCAT). These experiments reduced the pre-deepening period of the storm by 12 h and produced an early intensification. While the assimilation of AWS data has shown meagre impact on intensity, the assimilation of scatterometer winds produced an intermittent drop in intensity in the peak stage. The experiments FDDAMODIS and FDDAQSCAT produced minimum error in track and intensity estimates for a 90-h prediction of the storm. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2013

Suggested Citation

  • C. Srinivas & V. Yesubabu & K. Hariprasad & S. Ramakrishna & B. Venkatraman, 2013. "Real-time prediction of a severe cyclone ‘Jal’ over Bay of Bengal using a high-resolution mesoscale model WRF (ARW)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(1), pages 331-357, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:65:y:2013:i:1:p:331-357
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0364-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Medha Deshpande & S. Pattnaik & P. Salvekar, 2010. "Impact of physical parameterization schemes on numerical simulation of super cyclone Gonu," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 55(2), pages 211-231, November.
    2. D. Rao & Dasari Prasad, 2007. "Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensification to boundary layer and convective processes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 41(3), pages 429-445, June.
    3. Vinodkumar & A. Chandrasekar & K. Alapaty & D. Niyogi, 2007. "The effect of a surface data assimilation technique and the traditional four-dimensional data assimilation on the simulation of a monsoon depression over India using a mesoscale model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 42(2), pages 439-453, August.
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