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Determining flood hazard patterns through a combined stochastic–deterministic approach

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  • B. Mazzorana
  • F. Comiti
  • C. Volcan
  • C. Scherer

Abstract

A sound, evidence-based hazard mapping requires the analysis of stochastic processes taking place at critical configurations (e.g., bridges, levees) in order to reliably determine the spatial patterns of flood intensities and probabilities. Here, we discuss an approach aiming to support an enhanced determination of flood hazard patterns by identifying within alluvial fans and river corridors two main types of spatial domains based on the predictability of their dynamics, i.e., stochastic and quasi-deterministic domains. The former represents critical configurations whose dynamic evolution (e.g., clogging by large wood, failure due to breaching) cannot be realistically specified by deterministic models, whereas the latter refers to the part of the system where the flood propagation can be computed with sufficient precision and accuracy by hydrodynamic models. The applicability of the proposed approach is discussed on the basis of a case study in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano (Italy). Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Suggested Citation

  • B. Mazzorana & F. Comiti & C. Volcan & C. Scherer, 2011. "Determining flood hazard patterns through a combined stochastic–deterministic approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(1), pages 301-316, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:59:y:2011:i:1:p:301-316
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9755-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. H. Apel & G. Aronica & H. Kreibich & A. Thieken, 2009. "Flood risk analyses—how detailed do we need to be?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 49(1), pages 79-98, April.
    2. Gilboa,Itzhak, 2009. "Theory of Decision under Uncertainty," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521517324, September.
    3. Sven Fuchs & Magdalena Thöni & Maria McAlpin & Urs Gruber & Michael Bründl, 2007. "Avalanche Hazard Mitigation Strategies Assessed by Cost Effectiveness Analyses and Cost Benefit Analyses—evidence from Davos, Switzerland," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 41(1), pages 113-129, April.
    4. B. Mazzorana & J. Hübl & A. Zischg & A. Largiader, 2011. "Modelling woody material transport and deposition in alpine rivers," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(2), pages 425-449, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sofia Melo Vasconcellos & Masato Kobiyama & Fernanda Stachowski Dagostin & Claudia Weber Corseuil & Vinicius Santana Castiglio, 2021. "Flood Hazard Mapping in Alluvial Fans with Computational Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(5), pages 1463-1478, March.
    2. V. Ruiz-Villanueva & J. Bodoque & A. Díez-Herrero & E. Bladé, 2014. "Large wood transport as significant influence on flood risk in a mountain village," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 967-987, November.

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