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Repeated glacial-lake outburst floods in Patagonia: an increasing hazard?

Author

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  • Alejandro Dussaillant
  • Gerardo Benito
  • Wouter Buytaert
  • Paul Carling
  • Claudio Meier
  • Fabián Espinoza

Abstract

Five similar glacial-lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred in April, October, December 2008, March and September 2009 in the Northern Patagonia Icefield. On each occasion, Cachet 2 Lake, dammed by the Colonia Glacier, released circa 200-million m 3 water into the Colonia River. Refilling has occurred rapidly, such that further outbreak floods can be expected. Pipeflow calculations of the subglacial tunnel drainage and 1D hydraulic models of the river flood give consistent results, with an estimated peak discharge surpassing 3,000 m 3 s −1 . These floods were larger in magnitude than any flood on record, according to gauged data since 1963. However, geomorphological analysis of the Colonia valley shows physical evidence of former catastrophic outburst floods from a larger glacial-lake, with flood discharges possibly as high as 16,000 m 3 s −1 . Due to potential impacts of climate change on glacier dynamics in the area, jökulhlaups may increase future flood risks for infrastructure and population. This is particularly relevant in view of the current development of hydropower projects in Chilean Patagonia. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Dussaillant & Gerardo Benito & Wouter Buytaert & Paul Carling & Claudio Meier & Fabián Espinoza, 2010. "Repeated glacial-lake outburst floods in Patagonia: an increasing hazard?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 54(2), pages 469-481, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:54:y:2010:i:2:p:469-481
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-009-9479-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Klimeš & Miroslava Benešová & Vít Vilímek & Petr Bouška & Alejo Cochachin Rapre, 2014. "The reconstruction of a glacial lake outburst flood using HEC-RAS and its significance for future hazard assessments: an example from Lake 513 in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1617-1638, April.

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