IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v51y2009i1p139-150.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extreme sea levels, coastal flooding and climate change with a focus on Atlantic Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Keith Thompson
  • Natacha Bernier
  • Paul Chan

Abstract

Estimation of the probability distribution of extreme sea levels, for the present time and the next century, is discussed. Two approaches are described and their strengths and weaknesses are compared. The first approach is based on dynamics and uses a storm surge model forced by tides, winds and air pressure fields. The second approach is based on the statistical analysis of observed hourly sea level records using a new first-order Markov process that can capture non-Gaussian characteristics (such as skewness) in the non-tidal component of the observed sea level record. It is shown that both approaches can provide good estimates of present day flooding probabilities for regions with relatively strong tides. The limitations of both approaches in terms of assessing the effect of global sea level rise, glacial-isostatic adjustment of the land, and changes in the frequency and severity of storms and hurricanes, are illustrated using recent results for the Northwest Atlantic. Some sensitivity studies are carried out to transform uncertainty in climate change projections into uncertainties in the probability of coastal flooding. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Keith Thompson & Natacha Bernier & Paul Chan, 2009. "Extreme sea levels, coastal flooding and climate change with a focus on Atlantic Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 51(1), pages 139-150, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:51:y:2009:i:1:p:139-150
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-009-9380-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-009-9380-5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-009-9380-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adelchi Azzalini & Antonella Capitanio, 2003. "Distributions generated by perturbation of symmetry with emphasis on a multivariate skew t‐distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(2), pages 367-389, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Kesen & Karling, Maicon J. & Arellano-Valle, Reinaldo B. & Genton, Marc G., 2024. "Multivariate unified skew-t distributions and their properties," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    2. Takahashi, Makoto & Watanabe, Toshiaki & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2016. "Volatility and quantile forecasts by realized stochastic volatility models with generalized hyperbolic distribution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 437-457.
    3. Jorge E. Galán & María Rodríguez Moreno, 2020. "At-risk measures and financial stability," Financial Stability Review, Banco de España, issue Autumn.
    4. Chen, Qihao & Huang, Zhuo & Liang, Fang, 2023. "Measuring systemic risk with high-frequency data: A realized GARCH approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Gloria González‐Rivera & C. Vladimir Rodríguez‐Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "Expecting the unexpected: Stressed scenarios for economic growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 926-942, August.
    6. Yeap, Claudia & Kwok, Simon S. & Choy, S. T. Boris, 2016. "A Flexible Generalised Hyperbolic Option Pricing Model and its Special Cases," Working Papers 2016-14, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    7. Hu, Shuowen & Poskitt, D.S. & Zhang, Xibin, 2012. "Bayesian adaptive bandwidth kernel density estimation of irregular multivariate distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 732-740.
    8. Isaac E. Cortés & Osvaldo Venegas & Héctor W. Gómez, 2022. "A Symmetric/Asymmetric Bimodal Extension Based on the Logistic Distribution: Properties, Simulation and Applications," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-17, June.
    9. Toshihiro Abe & Arthur Pewsey, 2011. "Sine-skewed circular distributions," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 683-707, August.
    10. James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2024. "Constructing density forecasts from quantile regressions: Multimodality in macrofinancial dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 790-812, August.
    11. Schick, Manuel, 2024. "Real-time Nowcasting Growth-at-Risk using the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 0750, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    12. Zangin Zeebari & Ghazi Shukur, 2023. "On The Least Absolute Deviations Method for Ridge Estimation of Sure Models," Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(14), pages 4773-4791, July.
    13. Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Smith, Michael, 2010. "Bayesian skew selection for multivariate models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1824-1839, July.
    14. Phella, Anthoulla & Gabriel, Vasco J. & Martins, Luis F., 2024. "Predicting tail risks and the evolution of temperatures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    15. Xu, Wenjing & Pan, Qing & Gastwirth, Joseph L., 2014. "Cox proportional hazards models with frailty for negatively correlated employment processes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 295-307.
    16. repec:wrk:wrkemf:27 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2019. "Vulnerable Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1263-1289, April.
    18. Reinaldo B. Arellano-Valle & Marc G. Genton, 2010. "Multivariate extended skew-t distributions and related families," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(3), pages 201-234.
    19. Antonio Parisi & B. Liseo, 2018. "Objective Bayesian analysis for the multivariate skew-t model," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 27(2), pages 277-295, June.
    20. Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Sheheryar Malik & Ms. Srobona Mitra, 2019. "Breaking the Bank? A Probabilistic Assessment of Euro Area Bank Profitability," IMF Working Papers 2019/254, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco & Thomas Hasenzagl, 2020. "Financial Variables as Predictors of Real Growth Vulnerability," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2020-06, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:51:y:2009:i:1:p:139-150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.