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On the Bayesian analysis of the earthquake hazard in the North-East Indian peninsula

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  • Imtiyaz A. Parvez

Abstract

The Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences has been used to estimate the seismic hazard in 12 seismogenic zones of the North-East Indian peninsula. The Bayesian approach has been used very efficiently to combine the prior information on seismicity obtained from geological data with historical observations in many seismogenic zones of the world. The basic parameters to obtain the prior estimate of seismicity are the seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate and magnitude. These estimates are then updated in terms of Bayes’ theorem and historical evaluations of seismicity associated with each zone. From the Bayesian analysis of extreme earthquake occurrences for North-East Indian peninsula, it is found that for T = 5 years, the probability of occurrences of magnitude (M w = 5.0–5.5) is greater than 0.9 for all zones. For M w = 6.0, four zones namely Z1 (Central Himalayas), Z5 (Indo-Burma border), Z7 (Burmese arc) and Z8 (Burma region) exhibit high probabilities. Lower probability is shown by some zones namely␣Z4, Z12, and rest of the zones Z2, Z3, Z6, Z9, Z10 and Z11 show moderate probabilities. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Imtiyaz A. Parvez, 2007. "On the Bayesian analysis of the earthquake hazard in the North-East Indian peninsula," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 40(2), pages 397-412, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:40:y:2007:i:2:p:397-412
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-006-9002-4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Battarra, Maria & Balcik, Burcu & Xu, Huifu, 2018. "Disaster preparedness using risk-assessment methods from earthquake engineering," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(2), pages 423-435.
    2. Ying Wang & Qinglong Zhang & Chao Liu, 2014. "Bayesian probabilities of earthquake occurrences in Shanxi rift system (China)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1749-1769, April.
    3. Imtiyaz Parvez & Anastasia Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2014. "Estimation of seismic hazard and risks for the Himalayas and surrounding regions based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 549-562, March.
    4. Imtiyaz A. Parvez & Anastasia Nekrasova & Vladimir Kossobokov, 2018. "Seismic hazard and risk assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: thirteen principal urban agglomerations of India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1509-1522, July.

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