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Assessment of Risk due to Debris Flow Events: A Case Study in Central Taiwan

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  • Gwo-Fong Lin
  • Lu-Hsien Chen
  • Jun-Nan Lai

Abstract

In this paper, based on the concepts of uncertainty and reliability analyses, a method used for assessment of risk due to debris flow events is proposed. First, procedures for obtaining the configuration of debris-flow fans are presented. Then, the parameters affecting the configuration of debris-flow fans are identified and their corresponding means and standard deviations are derived. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the Shih-Pa-Chung Creek in central Taiwan. The expected deposition thickness at any point in the deposition area is computed and then the contours of risk for the 50-year and 100-year events are constructed. Regarding the expected deposition thickness, it is found that the closer the distance from the canyon mouth, the larger the debris-flow thickness becomes. The results also show that the contours of risk are of the shape of an ellipse similar to the shape of deposition area, and the risk at a point decreases with increasing distance of that point from the canyon mouth. In addition, when the return period of rainfall event is fixed, the variation in risk decreases as the distance from the canyon mouth increases. For the assessment of risk due to debris flow events, the proposed method is recommended as an alternative to the existing methods, because the influence of all the uncertainty of the parameters is considered. Copyright Springer 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Gwo-Fong Lin & Lu-Hsien Chen & Jun-Nan Lai, 2006. "Assessment of Risk due to Debris Flow Events: A Case Study in Central Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 39(1), pages 1-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:39:y:2006:i:1:p:1-14
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-005-1922-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Kaiheng Hu & Yong Li & Fangqiang Wei, 2009. "Annual risk assessment on high-frequency debris-flow fans," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 49(3), pages 469-477, June.
    2. Ko-Fei Liu & Hsin-Chi Li & Yu-Charn Hsu, 2009. "Debris flow hazard assessment with numerical simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 49(1), pages 137-161, April.
    3. Chen Cao & Peihua Xu & Jianping Chen & Lianjing Zheng & Cencen Niu, 2016. "Hazard Assessment of Debris-Flow along the Baicha River in Heshigten Banner, Inner Mongolia, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-19, December.

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