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Summer Floods in Central Europe – Climate Change Track?

Author

Listed:
  • Zbigniew Kundzewicz
  • Uwe Ulbrich
  • Tim brücher
  • Dariusz Graczyk
  • Andreas Krüger
  • Gregor Leckebusch
  • Lucas Menzel
  • Iwona Pińskwar
  • Maciej Radziejewski
  • Małgorzata Szwed

Abstract

In Central Europe, river flooding has been recently recognized as a major hazard, in particular after the 1997 Odra /Oder flood, the 2001 Vistula flood, and the most destructive 2002 deluge on the Labe/Elbe. Major recent floods in central Europe are put in perspective and their common elements are identified. Having observed that flood risk and vulnerability are likely to have grown in many areas, one is curious to understand the reasons for growth. These can be sought in socio-economic domain (humans encroaching into floodplain areas), terrestrial systems (land-cover changes – urbanization, deforestation, reduction of wetlands, river regulation), and climate system. The atmospheric capacity to absorb moisture, its potential water content, and thus potential for intense precipitation, are likely to increase in a warmer climate. The changes in intense precipitation and high flows are examined, based on observations and projections. Study of projected changes in intense precipitation, using climate models, for several areas of central Europe, and in particular, for drainage basins of the upper Labe/Elbe, Odra/Oder, and Vistula is reported. Significant changes have been identified between future projections and the reference period, of relevance to flood hazard in areas, which have experienced severe recent floodings. Copyright Springer 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Zbigniew Kundzewicz & Uwe Ulbrich & Tim brücher & Dariusz Graczyk & Andreas Krüger & Gregor Leckebusch & Lucas Menzel & Iwona Pińskwar & Maciej Radziejewski & Małgorzata Szwed, 2005. "Summer Floods in Central Europe – Climate Change Track?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 36(1), pages 165-189, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:36:y:2005:i:1:p:165-189
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-004-4547-6
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    1. repec:caa:jnljfs:v:preprint:id:5-2024-jfs is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Isao Nakamura & Maria Carmen Llasat, 2017. "Policy and systems of flood risk management: a comparative study between Japan and Spain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(2), pages 919-943, June.
    3. Shang-Shu Shih & Sheng-Chi Yang & Huei-Tau Ouyang, 2014. "Anthropogenic effects and climate change threats on the flood diversion of Erchung Floodway in Tanshui River, northern Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(3), pages 1733-1747, September.
    4. Heidi Kreibich & Philip Bubeck & Mathijs Vliet & Hans Moel, 2015. "A review of damage-reducing measures to manage fluvial flood risks in a changing climate," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 967-989, August.
    5. Iuliana Vijulie & Mihaela Preda & Ana Irina Lequeux-Dincă & Roxana Cuculici & Elena Matei & Alina Mareci & Gabriela Manea & Anca Tudoricu, 2019. "Economic Productivity vs. Ecological Protection in Danube Floodplain. Case Study: Danube’s Sector between Olt and Vedea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-20, November.
    6. Petr Dujka & Antonín Kusbach, 2024. "Geographical forest zonation: Perspectives, history and use," Journal of Forest Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 70(7), pages 335-352.
    7. Mikołaj Piniewski & Mateusz Szcześniak & Ignacy Kardel, 2017. "CHASE-PL—Future Hydrology Data Set: Projections of Water Balance and Streamflow for the Vistula and Odra Basins, Poland," Data, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-11, April.
    8. Gianna Ida Festa & Luigi Guerriero & Mariano Focareta & Giuseppe Meoli & Silvana Revellino & Francesco Maria Guadagno & Paola Revellino, 2022. "Calculating Economic Flood Damage through Microscale Risk Maps and Data Generalization: A Pilot Study in Southern Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-21, May.
    9. D. Skublics & P. Rutschmann, 2015. "Progress in natural flood retention at the Bavarian Danube," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 51-67, February.

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