Volcanic Eruption Induced Floods. A Rainfall-Runoff Model Applied to the Vesuvian Region (Italy)

Explosive events are commonly accompanied or followed byheavy rains. These eruption-induced storms together with thedeposition of large amounts of ash contribute to destabilise thehydrological cycle in the areas affected by volcanic eruptions.Flooding of the region surrounding the active volcano can easilyfollow, increasing the complexity of the volcanic crisis and itsmanagement. This is particularly true in the case of Vesuvius,that is not only characterized by a dramatic volcanic hazard, butit is also located within an area that is normally prone to flood hazard. A complete assessment of the impact associated with explosive volcaniceruptions should involve a flood hazard assessment for the region.This work represents a first attempt to address the problem: atopographically based rainfall-runoff model was here applied to theVesuvian area where two main sub-basins were analysed. The modelwas applied to evaluate the role of selected parameters on the totaldischarge at the basins' outlet. These parameters were chosen amongthose likely to be affected by an explosive event and were variedthrough a reasonable range. Results confirm that the deposition oflarge amounts of ash can affect the temporal evolution of the dischargeand its maximum value, for a given precipitation event. The simulationspresented outline the need for a detailed flood forecasting study for theVesuvian area, that should be included within the hazard mitigation strategies. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004