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Quantifying effects of changes in forest age distribution on the landslide frequency in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Novia Lusiana

    (University of Miyazaki
    Universitas Brawijaya)

  • Yoshinori Shinohara

    (University of Miyazaki)

  • Fumitoshi Imaizumi

    (Shizuoka University)

Abstract

Landslides are destructive natural disasters that cause human and economic losses. Although many studies report the effects of forest age on landslide susceptibility, especially for shallow landslides, no studies have examined the effects at a national scale. We assumed that temporal variations in the annual number of rainfall-triggered landslides in Japan were determined by variations in rainfall and forest age distribution. By this assumption, this study aimed to quantify the decrease in the frequency of rainfall-induced landslides owing to the increasing maturity of forests in Japan. Data were collated from 21 studies covering 11 sites in three countries that reported a landslide susceptibility index (i.e., frequency ratio or landslide density) and the relation between forest age and the normalized landslide susceptibility index (NLSI) was modeled. Using this relation and the area for each forest age class, the change in landslide susceptibility at a national scale (NLSIJpn) was quantified during 1966–2017. The authors developed generalized linear models (GLMs) using the annual number of landslides as the response variable and the NLSIJpn and a rainfall index for each year as the explanatory variables. The number of rainfall-induced landslides was simulated in the GLMs in 15 scenarios with different forest age distributions and rainfall amounts. The number of landslides in young-age-dominated and middle-age-dominated forests was estimated to be 2.4 and 1.1 times, respectively, that in mature-age-dominated forests. The change in the number of landslides from young-age-dominated to mature-age-dominated forests was larger than that from an increase in the rainfall amount of 20%. We conclude that increasing the maturity of forests greatly reduces landslide frequency in Japan. In a changing climate with potentially threatening increases in rainfall, preserving mature forests is important to avoid amplifying landslide susceptibility on a national scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Novia Lusiana & Yoshinori Shinohara & Fumitoshi Imaizumi, 2024. "Quantifying effects of changes in forest age distribution on the landslide frequency in Japan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(9), pages 8551-8570, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:9:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06537-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06537-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yoshinori Shinohara & Yuta Watanabe, 2023. "Differences in factors determining landslide hazards among three types of landslides in Japan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(2), pages 1689-1705, September.
    2. Ananta Pradhan & Yun-Tae Kim, 2014. "Relative effect method of landslide susceptibility zonation in weathered granite soil: a case study in Deokjeok-ri Creek, South Korea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 1189-1217, June.
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