Social vulnerability to environmental disasters in the Paraopeba River Basin, Minas Gerais, Brazil

The increase in the number of environmental disasters in recent years has prompted a reorientation of research and programs. While significant studies have primarily focused on the physical aspects of these disasters, it is important to recognize that the vulnerability of populations is not solely dependent on the proximity of the threat source or the physical nature of the disaster. Social factors also play a crucial role in determining vulnerability. To enhance natural disaster management, it is vital to understand how social disparities influence the vulnerability of populations and develop strategies tailored to specific characteristics. This study proposes a set of 16 theoretically significant variables to measure and map vulnerability in Brazil. They were grouped into three indicators, social, economic, and infrastructure aspects of the population, obtained from the Brazilian census database. The Córrego do Feijão tailings dam, in Brumadinho, and the Casa de Pedra tailings dam, in Congonhas, were taken as case studies. The vulnerability of 48 municipalities and 3732 census sectors from the Paraopeba River Basin was explored from two different perspectives: Where the disaster has already happened, and where it could happen. The index and indicators used were developed in an open-source software and the maps in a geographic information system. The results show considerable variability. The most vulnerable municipalities are in the lower part of the basin while the high part of the basin vulnerable. This paper presents methodological and empirical contributions to understanding the social dimensions of vulnerability and their implications for the preparation, response, and recovery of affected communities in the face of environmental disasters.