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Assessing the annual probability of rainfall-induced slope failure based on intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves

Author

Listed:
  • Meng Lu

    (Tongji University)

  • Jie Zhang

    (Tongji University)

  • Qing Lü

    (Zhejiang University)

  • Lulu Zhang

    (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

Abstract

Assessing the annual probability of slope failure under rainfall (PFA) is a key step in quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of rainfall-induced landslides. To assess the PFA using mechanics-based methods, the uncertainty of rainfall in a year needs to be considered. Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are a widely available rainfall model. It is of practical significance to develop a method to assess the PFA based on IDF curves. However, since the uncertainty of the rainfall duration is missing in IDF curves, how to assess the PFA based on IDF curves remains a problem. This paper suggests a novel method to assess the PFA based on IDF curves. It consists of two major steps, i.e., (1) recovering the uncertainty associated with the rainfall duration and (2) simulating the most critical rainfall from an IDF curve to compute the PFA. The suggested method is validated by a theoretically rigorous method for the PFA calculation, where the bivariate rainfall distribution is used to consider the uncertainties of both the intensity and the duration. This study provides a practical tool to support QRA of rainfall-induced landslides.

Suggested Citation

  • Meng Lu & Jie Zhang & Qing Lü & Lulu Zhang, 2023. "Assessing the annual probability of rainfall-induced slope failure based on intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 763-778, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:117:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-023-05882-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05882-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. T. Vu & V. S. Raghavan & S.-Y. Liong, 2017. "Deriving short-duration rainfall IDF curves from a regional climate model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(3), pages 1877-1891, February.
    2. Peter W. Glynn & Donald L. Iglehart, 1989. "Importance Sampling for Stochastic Simulations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(11), pages 1367-1392, November.
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