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United States Federal Emergency Management Agency regional clustering by disaster exposure: a new paradigm for disaster response

Author

Listed:
  • Colton Margus

    (Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center
    Bronxcare Health System)

  • Attila Hertelendy

    (Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center
    Florida International University)

  • Yudong Tao

    (University of Miami)

  • Erik Coltey

    (University of Missouri-Kansas City)

  • Shu-Ching Chen

    (University of Missouri-Kansas City)

  • Steven Luis

    (University of Missouri-Kansas City)

  • Mei-Ling Shyu

    (University of Miami)

  • Gregory R. Ciottone

    (Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center)

Abstract

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) divides the United States (US) into ten standard regions to promote local partnerships and priorities. These divisions, while longstanding, do not adequately address known hazard risk as reflected in past federal disaster declarations. From FEMA’s inception in 1979 until 2020, the OpenFEMA dataset reports 4127 natural disaster incidents declared by 53 distinct state-level jurisdictions, listed by disaster location, type, and year. An unsupervised spectral clustering (SC) algorithm was applied to group these jurisdictions into regions based on affinity scores assigned to each pair of jurisdictions accounting for both geographic proximity and historical disaster exposures. Reassigning jurisdictions to ten regions using the proposed SC algorithm resulted in an adjusted Rand index (ARI) of 0.43 when compared with the existing FEMA regional structure, indicating little similarity between the current FEMA regions and the clustering results. Reassigning instead into six regions substantially improved cluster quality with a maximized silhouette score of 0.42, compared to a score of 0.34 for ten regions. In clustering US jurisdictions not only by geographic proximity but also by the myriad hazards faced in relation to one another, this study demonstrates a novel method for FEMA regional allocation and design that may ultimately improve FEMA disaster specialization and response.

Suggested Citation

  • Colton Margus & Attila Hertelendy & Yudong Tao & Erik Coltey & Shu-Ching Chen & Steven Luis & Mei-Ling Shyu & Gregory R. Ciottone, 2023. "United States Federal Emergency Management Agency regional clustering by disaster exposure: a new paradigm for disaster response," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3427-3445, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:116:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-023-05817-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05817-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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