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The influence of land use and land cover change on landslide susceptibility in the Lower Mekong River Basin

Author

Listed:
  • Chelsea Dandridge

    (University of Virginia)

  • Thomas Stanley

    (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
    University of Maryland, Baltimore County
    Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research II)

  • Dalia Kirschbaum

    (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center)

  • Pukar Amatya

    (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
    University of Maryland, Baltimore County
    Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research II)

  • Venkataraman Lakshmi

    (University of Virginia)

Abstract

The Lower Mekong River Basin in Southeast Asia experiences frequent rainfall-triggered landslides especially during the monsoon season. In this study, the influence of land use and land cover change and other causative factors on landslide susceptibility is evaluated in the Lower Mekong Basin. Frequency ratio analysis is performed to quantify the relationship between LULC change and susceptibility. Detailed landslide inventory maps are used for analysis with yearly LULC maps. The LULC change is used as a contributing variable in a logistic regression-based susceptibility model with other variables including distance to roads, slope, aspect, forest loss, and soil properties. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and Area Under the Curve are estimated for the model trained by each landslide inventory. The models show good performance, with AUC values ranging from 0.697 to 0.958 and an average AUC equal to 0.820. Both the Frequency Ratio analysis and the Logistic Regression models indicate LULC change from agricultural land to forest has a positive correlation with landslide occurrence. The most significant factors in the models are found to be distance to roads, slope, and aspect. A better understanding of the effects of LULC on landslide susceptibility can be useful for local land and disaster management and for the implementation of LULC as a factor in future susceptibility models. Using datasets that are unique to the Lower Mekong region, this study provides additional insights into the relationship between causative factors and landslide activity to better inform regional and global landslide susceptibility modeling.

Suggested Citation

  • Chelsea Dandridge & Thomas Stanley & Dalia Kirschbaum & Pukar Amatya & Venkataraman Lakshmi, 2023. "The influence of land use and land cover change on landslide susceptibility in the Lower Mekong River Basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(2), pages 1499-1523, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:115:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05604-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05604-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jie Liu & Zhen Wu & Huiwen Zhang, 2021. "Analysis of Changes in Landslide Susceptibility according to Land Use over 38 Years in Lixian County, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-23, September.
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