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Heat waves and forest fires in Bulgaria

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Nojarov

    (Bulgarian Academy of Sciences)

  • Mariyana Nikolova

    (Bulgarian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

This study reveals the dynamics in the number and intensity of heat waves in Bulgaria in the late 20th and early twenty-first century, as well as their impact on forest fires in the beginning of this century. Statistical methods such as linear regression and Spearman’s correlation were the main tools of this study. Multiple linear regression models were used in order to reveal the complex influence of heat wave characteristics on forest fires in Bulgaria. Over the last four decades, there has been a statistically significant trend of increasing number of days belonging to heat waves. There is no significant trend (except in southwestern Bulgaria) in the average maximum temperatures of heat waves in the period 1979–2021. This is due to a change in the atmospheric circulation over Bulgaria in the twenty-first century toward increased transport of air masses from northeast in summer. The heat waves have a significant impact on the forest fires in Bulgaria in summer. In general, more, longer and having higher air temperatures heat waves provide more favorable conditions for the occurrence and development of forest fires. The results of this study can serve to build on the existing methodology for determining the risk of forest fires in the territory of Bulgaria, including factors such as the total duration and intensity of heat waves.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Nojarov & Mariyana Nikolova, 2022. "Heat waves and forest fires in Bulgaria," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1879-1899, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:114:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05451-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05451-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Nojarov, 2021. "Impact of climate change on atmospheric circulation, wind characteristics and wave in the western part of the Black Sea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 1073-1095, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Özer Akyürek, 2023. "Spatial and temporal analysis of vegetation fires in Europe," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 1105-1124, May.
    2. Hadi Beygi Heidarlou & Melina Gholamzadeh Bazarbash & Stelian Alexandru Borz, 2024. "Unveiling the Role of Climate and Environmental Dynamics in Shaping Forest Fire Patterns in Northern Zagros, Iran," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-19, September.

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