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Damage assessment for tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong Province of China by using a projection pursuit dynamic cluster model

Author

Listed:
  • Chaoyong Tu

    (Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
    China Meteorological Administration (CMA))

  • Shumin Chen

    (Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai))

  • Zhongkuo Zhao

    (China Meteorological Administration (CMA))

  • Weibiao Li

    (Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai))

  • Changjian Ni

    (Chengdu University of Information Technology)

Abstract

Using data from 62 tropical cyclones (TCs) that made landfall in Guangdong Province (China) between 2000 and 2019, we selected six indices—minimum central pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum rainstorm ratio, cumulative surface rainfall, tropical cyclone (TC) track length, lifetime—and constructed a projection pursuit dynamic cluster (PPDC) model to assess TC damage risk. Although a single index may provide correct information on the intensity of certain types of damage, a comprehensive damage risk assessment cannot be obtained from individual indices alone. The PPDC model is a stable tool for TC damage risk assessment, especially in terms of economic loss, agricultural disaster area and disaster-affected population. Model validation improved the correlation of each of the indices. Output from the PPDC model for disaster-affected population and agricultural disaster-affected area also improved after model validation. We examined the limitations of the single indices using data from three TCs. Output from the PPDC model can closely reflect the intensity of the damage caused by the cyclones. Projection pursuit dynamic clustering is a new objective method for TC damage risk assessment, which can provide the scientific basis to support disaster prevention and mitigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Chaoyong Tu & Shumin Chen & Zhongkuo Zhao & Weibiao Li & Changjian Ni, 2022. "Damage assessment for tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong Province of China by using a projection pursuit dynamic cluster model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(1), pages 475-493, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:114:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05398-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05398-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Mandal & U. Mohanty & P. Sinha & M. Ali, 2007. "Impact of sea surface temperature in modulating movement and intensity of tropical cyclones," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 41(3), pages 413-427, June.
    2. Shun-Jiu Wang & Chang-Jian Ni, 2008. "Application of Projection Pursuit Dynamic Cluster Model in Regional Partition of Water Resources in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(10), pages 1421-1429, October.
    3. S. H. Li & H. P. Hong, 2016. "Typhoon wind hazard estimation for China using an empirical track model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(2), pages 1009-1029, June.
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