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Preparing for real-time weather risk management: the decision models of household evacuation under uncertainty for Taiwanese and US residents

Author

Listed:
  • Ya-Pin Lyu

    (National Taiwan Normal University)

  • Terri Adams

    (Howard University)

Abstract

The frequency of extreme weather events has increased in recent decades due to climate change, and the demand for both more accurate weather forecasts and early warnings surges in risk management of weather-related disasters. However, the gap between weather forecast issuance and proper usage remains considerable, and we still see individual and household inactive to precautionary actions across lead times. A lack of effective risk management and the inaction of individuals urge us to review and inspect household usage of weather information and the decision-making processes, so as to find effective strategies and ensure smarter risk management. Using a survey designed by NOAA National Severe Storm Laboratories, USA, and conducting nationwide surveys in the USA and Taiwan, respectively, we aim to inspect the determinants of household evacuation decisions. Particularly, we hope to know whether biased risk perception, cognitive biases on risk information, and cultural biases exist, thereby causing inactive household evacuation. This research finds both Taiwanese and US respondents have problems of optimistic bias at earlier lead times, until they observe the hazards. They also easily suffer from cognition biases while determining whether to evacuate. Our research suggests real-time weather risk management is essential and we demonstrate the following: firstly, strategies that help correct biased risk perception, including education on weather forecast interpretation, training courses of probabilistic forecasts, customized formats of weather risk information, and AI assistance in real-time weather risk assessment, should be initiated and developed to inform risk situations for different demographic groups. Secondly, smart scientific risk communication and risk education should be accurately implemented to capture user lifestyle about risk management and meet local needs and communication preferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Ya-Pin Lyu & Terri Adams, 2022. "Preparing for real-time weather risk management: the decision models of household evacuation under uncertainty for Taiwanese and US residents," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(1), pages 405-425, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:114:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05395-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05395-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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