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Impact of climate change on meteorological and hydrological droughts for Upper Coruh Basin, Turkey

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  • Muhammet Yılmaz

    (Erzurum Technical University)

  • Harun Alp

    (Ege University)

  • Fatih Tosunoğlu

    (Erzurum Technical University)

  • Ömer Levend Aşıkoğlu

    (Ege University)

  • Ebru Eriş

    (Ege University)

Abstract

Drought is a multifaceted natural hazard that occurs in almost every component of the hydrological cycle. This study investigated future hydro-meteorological droughts using climate projections from an ensemble of 13 European Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) domain outputs under two alternative scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the 2030–2059 and 2070–2099 periods across Upper Coruh Basin, Turkey. The bias-corrected CORDEX climate projections were incorporated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. In this study, two optimisation algorithms (the sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm of SWAT calibration and uncertainty and the shuffled complex evolution (SCE) algorithm in parameter estimation tool (PEST)) were tested for the automatic parameter calibration of a complex hydrologic model, SWAT, in the study area. Results show that SCE reached better parameter solutions than the other algorithm. This study investigated for the first time a comprehensive analysis of the projected droughts in the Upper Coruh Basin, Turkey. The standardised precipitation index and standardised streamflow index were used to evaluate the meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. Overall, the future annual precipitation and the maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to change from − 15.46% to 8.74%, 0.02 °C to 8.74 °C and − 2.69 °C to 5.27 °C, respectively. The results show that the frequency of hydrological drought durations will be higher under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during the period 2030–2059. In addition, the frequency of hydrological high-severity droughts (> ~ 5) and low-severity droughts (

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  • Muhammet Yılmaz & Harun Alp & Fatih Tosunoğlu & Ömer Levend Aşıkoğlu & Ebru Eriş, 2022. "Impact of climate change on meteorological and hydrological droughts for Upper Coruh Basin, Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1039-1063, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:112:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05217-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05217-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jincai Zhao & Qianqian Liu & Heli Lu & Zheng Wang & Ke Zhang & Pan Wang, 2021. "Future droughts in China using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) under multi-spatial scales," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 615-636, October.
    2. Veysel Gumus & Oguz Simsek & Yavuz Avsaroglu & Berivan Agun, 2021. "Spatio‐temporal trend analysis of drought in the GAP Region, Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1759-1776, November.
    3. Fatih Tosunoglu & Ibrahim Can, 2016. "Application of copulas for regional bivariate frequency analysis of meteorological droughts in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1457-1477, July.
    4. Simon Deslauriers & Tew-Fik Mahdi, 2018. "Flood modelling improvement using automatic calibration of two dimensional river software SRH-2D," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(2), pages 697-715, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dilayda Soylu Pekpostalci & Rifat Tur & Ali Danandeh Mehr & Mohammad Amin Vazifekhah Ghaffari & Dominika Dąbrowska & Vahid Nourani, 2023. "Drought Monitoring and Forecasting across Turkey: A Contemporary Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, March.

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