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A multi-model decision support system (MM-DSS) for avalanche hazard prediction over North-West Himalaya

Author

Listed:
  • Prabhjot Kaur

    (Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment)

  • Jagdish Chandra Joshi

    (Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment)

  • Preeti Aggarwal

    (Panjab University)

Abstract

Avalanche forecasting is carried out using physical as well as statistical models. All these models have certain limitations associated with their mathematical formulation that enable them to perform variably with respect to forecast of an avalanche event and associated danger. To overcome limitations of each individual model, a multi-model decision support system (MM-DSS) has been developed for forecasting of avalanche danger in Chowkibal–Tangdhar (C-T) region of North-West Himalaya. The MM-DSS has been developed for two different altitude zones of the C-T region by integrating four avalanche forecasting models-Hidden Markov model (HMM), nearest neighbour (NN), artificial neural network (ANN) and snow cover model-HIM-STRAT to deliver avalanche forecast with a lead time of three days. Weather variables for these models have been predicted using ANN. Root mean square error of predicted weather variables is computed by using leave one out cross-validation method. Snow and meteorological data of 22 winters (1992–2014) of the lower C-T region and 8 winters (2008–2016) of the higher C-T region have been used to develop avalanche forecasting models for these two sub-regions. All the avalanche forecasting models have been validated by true skill score (TSS), Heidke skill score (HSS), per cent correct (PC), probability of detection (POD), bias and false alarm rate (FAR) using data of five winters (2014–19) for the lower C-T region and three winters (2016–19) for the upper C-T region. In both the C-T regions, for day-1, day-2 and day-3, the HSS of MM-DSS lies between 0.26 and 0.4 and the POD between 0.64 and 0.86.

Suggested Citation

  • Prabhjot Kaur & Jagdish Chandra Joshi & Preeti Aggarwal, 2022. "A multi-model decision support system (MM-DSS) for avalanche hazard prediction over North-West Himalaya," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(1), pages 563-585, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:110:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04958-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04958-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grant Statham & Pascal Haegeli & Ethan Greene & Karl Birkeland & Clair Israelson & Bruce Tremper & Chris Stethem & Bruce McMahon & Brad White & John Kelly, 2018. "A conceptual model of avalanche hazard," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(2), pages 663-691, January.
    2. Jagdish Chandra Joshi & Prabhjot Kaur & Bhupinder Kumar & Amreek Singh & P. K. Satyawali, 2020. "HIM-STRAT: a neural network-based model for snow cover simulation and avalanche hazard prediction over North-West Himalaya," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 1239-1260, August.
    3. Hongxiang Yan & Hamid Moradkhani, 2016. "Toward more robust extreme flood prediction by Bayesian hierarchical and multimodeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 203-225, March.
    4. Jagdish Chandra Joshi & Tankeshwar Kumar & Sunita Srivastava & Divya Sachdeva & Ashwagosha Ganju, 2018. "Application of Hidden Markov Model for avalanche danger simulations for road sectors in North-West Himalaya," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(3), pages 1127-1143, September.
    5. Hongxiang Yan & Hamid Moradkhani, 2016. "Toward more robust extreme flood prediction by Bayesian hierarchical and multimodeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 203-225, March.
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