IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v109y2021i2d10.1007_s11069-021-04893-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do increasing horizontal resolution and downscaling approaches produce a skillful thunderstorm forecast?

Author

Listed:
  • Kumari Priya

    (National Institute of Technology Rourkela)

  • Raghu Nadimpalli

    (Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar)

  • Krishna K. Osuri

    (National Institute of Technology Rourkela)

Abstract

The timely prediction of thunderstorms (TS) is always a challenging task for operational and research community. The present study is aimed to address the credibility of the high grid-spacing and downscaling approach for improved simulation of TS. Fourteen TS are simulated with different domain configurations using weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. Two nested domains with 9–3 km (known as DD3), and 6–2 km (DD2), and 3 km single domain (SD3) are considered for simulations. Results indicate that the high-resolution DD2 has improved 2-m temperature (T2), 2-m relative humidity (RH2), and 10-m wind speed (WS10) at different stages of TS. The average mean error of T2 and RH2 in the DD2 experiment is 0.7 °C, − 6% during the mature stage, and 0.2 °C, − 4% at dissipating stage. The error in SD3 and DD3 is relatively higher (9–17% for T2 and 20–60% for RH2). Better horizontal and vertical representation of thermodynamic variables in DD2 run reinforces the atmosphere to initiate and intensify the convection in the right place. The DD2 could show slightly higher instability (convective available potential energy, CAPE, 3188 J kg−1) as compared with DD3 (3164 J kg−1) and SD3 (3020 J kg−1). The model is biased to simulate early TS activity. DD2 run could simulate the formation, mature and dissipation stages with fewer timing errors (− 1.35 h, − 1.5 h, and − 2.6 h, respectively) than other experiments. The critical success index of the DD2 run is higher for all the rainfall thresholds; however, it is more than 0.2 up to 2.5 mm h−1. The results highlight that high resolution nested configuration yields better simulation skills than the single domain configuration.

Suggested Citation

  • Kumari Priya & Raghu Nadimpalli & Krishna K. Osuri, 2021. "Do increasing horizontal resolution and downscaling approaches produce a skillful thunderstorm forecast?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1655-1674, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:109:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04893-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04893-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-021-04893-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-021-04893-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Kiran Prasad & U. Mohanty & A. Routray & Krishna Osuri & S. Ramakrishna & Dev Niyogi, 2014. "Impact of Doppler weather radar data on thunderstorm simulation during STORM pilot phase—2009," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 1403-1427, December.
    2. Bhishma Tyagi & V. Naresh Krishna & A. Satyanarayana, 2011. "Study of thermodynamic indices in forecasting pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Kolkata during STORM pilot phase 2006–2008," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(3), pages 681-698, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adrian Piticar & Simona Andrei & Alexandru Tudor, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Variability of Convective Events in Romania Based on METAR Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Kumari Priya & Talukdar Sasanka & Krishna K. Osuri, 2023. "Land use land cover representation through supervised machine learning methods: sensitivity on simulation of urban thunderstorms in the east coast of India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 295-317, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kumari Priya & Talukdar Sasanka & Krishna K. Osuri, 2023. "Land use land cover representation through supervised machine learning methods: sensitivity on simulation of urban thunderstorms in the east coast of India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 295-317, March.
    2. Mohan Das & Md. Chowdhury & Someshwar Das & Sujit Debsarma & Samarendra Karmakar, 2015. "Assimilation of Doppler weather radar data and their impacts on the simulation of squall events during pre-monsoon season," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 901-931, June.
    3. Rajesh Kumar Sahu & Jiteshwar Dadich & Bhishma Tyagi & Naresh Krishna Vissa & Jyotsna Singh, 2020. "Evaluating the impact of climate change in threshold values of thermodynamic indices during pre-monsoon thunderstorm season over Eastern India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 1541-1569, July.
    4. Murad Ahmed Farukh & Md. Azharul Islam & Md. Nasir Uddin, 2023. "Synoptic climatology of pre-monsoon frequent lightning events in Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 1053-1070, March.
    5. Samarendra Karmakar & Dewan Abdul Quadir & Mohan Kumar Das, 2017. "Numerical simulation of physical and dynamical characteristics associated with the severe thunderstorm on April 5, 2015 at Kushtia and Jhenaidah," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(3), pages 1127-1146, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:109:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04893-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.