IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v106y2021i1d10.1007_s11069-020-04452-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Susceptibility assessment for rainfall-induced landslides using a revised logistic regression method

Author

Listed:
  • Xinfu Xing

    (Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen))

  • Chenglong Wu

    (Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen))

  • Jinhui Li

    (Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen))

  • Xueyou Li

    (Sun Yat-Sen University)

  • Limin Zhang

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Rongjie He

    (Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen))

Abstract

Landslide susceptibility is the likelihood of a landslide occurring in an area. The logistic regression (LR) method is one of the most popular methods for landslide susceptibility assessment. For rainfall-induced landslides, yearly or monthly rainfall is commonly used to establish a landslide susceptibility model by the LR method. It is a static susceptibility model, which limits the application to predict future landslide probability under potential rainfall event. This study presents a revised logistic regression method to achieve dynamic landslide susceptibility prediction under cumulative daily rainfall. Five kinds of cumulative daily rainfall are used in the landslide susceptibility assessment. The latest landslide events are used to update the landslide susceptibility model. The receiver operation characteristic curve and area under curve are utilized to evaluate the prediction reliability. The landslide susceptibility assessment in Shenzhen is taken as an illustration of the proposed method. The result indicates the method is capable to achieve a high accuracy of 91.9% when the landslide susceptibility model is updated using seven extreme rainfall events in the past 10 years. This method provides an advance prediction of the potential geo-hazards for a large area using the future rainfall forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinfu Xing & Chenglong Wu & Jinhui Li & Xueyou Li & Limin Zhang & Rongjie He, 2021. "Susceptibility assessment for rainfall-induced landslides using a revised logistic regression method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 97-117, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:106:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04452-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04452-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-04452-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-020-04452-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Changjiang Li & Tuhua Ma & Xinsheng Zhu, 2010. "aiNet- and GIS-based regional prediction system for the spatial and temporal probability of rainfall-triggered landslides," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 52(1), pages 57-78, January.
    2. Krishna Devkota & Amar Regmi & Hamid Pourghasemi & Kohki Yoshida & Biswajeet Pradhan & In Ryu & Megh Dhital & Omar Althuwaynee, 2013. "Landslide susceptibility mapping using certainty factor, index of entropy and logistic regression models in GIS and their comparison at Mugling–Narayanghat road section in Nepal Himalaya," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(1), pages 135-165, January.
    3. King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2001. "Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 137-163, January.
    4. Netra Bhandary & Ranjan Dahal & Manita Timilsina & Ryuichi Yatabe, 2013. "Rainfall event-based landslide susceptibility zonation mapping," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(1), pages 365-388, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yiding Bao & Yuchao Li & Yansong Zhang & Jianhua Yan & Xin Zhou & Xudong Zhang, 2022. "Investigation of the role of crown crack in cohesive soil slope and its effect on slope stability based on the extended finite element method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(1), pages 295-314, January.
    2. Zhengyang Su & Guizhi Wang & Yakun Wang & Xiang Luo & Hao Zhang, 2022. "Numerical simulation of dynamic catastrophe of slope instability in three Gorges reservoir area based on FEM and SPH method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(1), pages 709-724, March.
    3. Txomin Bornaetxea & Juan Remondo & Jaime Bonachea & Pablo Valenzuela, 2023. "Exploring available landslide inventories for susceptibility analysis in Gipuzkoa province (Spain)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 2513-2542, September.
    4. Shaohan Zhang & Shucheng Tan & Lifeng Liu & Duanyu Ding & Yongqi Sun & Jun Li, 2023. "Slope Rock and Soil Mass Movement Geological Hazards Susceptibility Evaluation Using Information Quantity, Deterministic Coefficient, and Logistic Regression Models and Their Comparison at Xuanwei, Ch," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-19, July.
    5. Qinghua Zhang & Zhu Liang & Wei Liu & Weiping Peng & Houzan Huang & Shouwen Zhang & Lingwei Chen & Kaihua Jiang & Lixing Liu, 2022. "Landslide Susceptibility Prediction: Improving the Quality of Landslide Samples by Isolation Forests," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Yiding Bao & Hong Wang & Lijun Su & Dajiang Geng & Liang Yang & Peng Shao & Yuchao Li & Ni Du, 2022. "Comprehensive analysis using multiple-integrated techniques on the failure mechanism and dynamic process of a long run-out landslide: Jichang landslide case," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(3), pages 2197-2215, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haoyuan Hong & Himan Shahabi & Ataollah Shirzadi & Wei Chen & Kamran Chapi & Baharin Bin Ahmad & Majid Shadman Roodposhti & Arastoo Yari Hesar & Yingying Tian & Dieu Tien Bui, 2019. "Landslide susceptibility assessment at the Wuning area, China: a comparison between multi-criteria decision making, bivariate statistical and machine learning methods," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(1), pages 173-212, March.
    2. F. Gauthier & D. Germain & B. Hétu, 2017. "Logistic models as a forecasting tool for snow avalanches in a cold maritime climate: northern Gaspésie, Québec, Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(1), pages 201-232, October.
    3. Douglas Cumming & Lars Hornuf & Moein Karami & Denis Schweizer, 2023. "Disentangling Crowdfunding from Fraudfunding," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 182(4), pages 1103-1128, February.
    4. Eunae Yoo & Elliot Rabinovich & Bin Gu, 2020. "The Growth of Follower Networks on Social Media Platforms for Humanitarian Operations," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(12), pages 2696-2715, December.
    5. Lo Turco, Alessia & Maggioni, Daniela, 2018. "Effects of Islamic religiosity on bilateral trust in trade: The case of Turkish exports," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 947-965.
    6. Blackman, Allen & Guerrero, Santiago, 2012. "What drives voluntary eco-certification in Mexico?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 256-268.
    7. Alessandra Iannamorelli & Stefano Nobili & Antonio Scalia & Luana Zaccaria, 2024. "Asymmetric Information and Corporate Lending: Evidence from SME Bond Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 163-201.
    8. Mehrez Ben Slama & Dhafer Saidane & Hassouna Fedhila, 2012. "How to identify targets in the M&A banking operations? Case of cross-border strategies in Europe by line of activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 209-240, February.
    9. Lorenzo Cassi & Anne Plunket, 2014. "Proximity, network formation and inventive performance: in search of the proximity paradox," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(2), pages 395-422, September.
    10. Hwang, Seokyoun & Sarath, Bharat & Han, Seung-youb, 2022. "Auditor independence: The effect of auditors’ quality control efforts and corporate governance," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    11. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
    12. Eling, Martin & Jia, Ruo, 2018. "Business failure, efficiency, and volatility: Evidence from the European insurance industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-76.
    13. Andrews, RJ & Fazio, Catherine & Guzman, Jorge & Liu, Yupeng & Stern, Scott, 2022. "The Startup Cartography Project: Measuring and mapping entrepreneurial ecosystems," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(2).
    14. Tom Broekel & Wladimir Mueller, 2018. "Critical links in knowledge networks – What about proximities and gatekeeper organisations?," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(10), pages 919-939, November.
    15. Valérie Revest & Alessandro Sapio, 2016. "Graduation and sell-out strategies in the Alternative Investment Market," Discussion Papers 4_2016, CRISEI, University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    16. Andy Lardon & Marc Deloof, 2014. "Financial disclosure by SMEs listed on a semi-regulated market: evidence from the Euronext Free Market," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 361-385, February.
    17. Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2021. "Optimizing Policymakers’ Loss Functions In Crisis Prediction: Before, Within Or After?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 100-123, January.
    18. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    19. Kourosh Shirani & Mehrdad Pasandi & Alireza Arabameri, 2018. "Landslide susceptibility assessment by Dempster–Shafer and Index of Entropy models, Sarkhoun basin, Southwestern Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(3), pages 1379-1418, September.
    20. Christensen, Jonas Gade, 2011. "Democracy and Expropriations," Working Papers in Economics 06/11, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:106:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04452-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.