Wave group focusing in the ocean: estimations using crest velocities and a Gaussian linear model

Wave group focusing gives rise to the formation of large gravity waves at the surface of the ocean, some of which are called rogue waves and represent a natural hazard for ships and offshore platforms. For safety purposes, it is crucial to predict when and where these large waves will appear and how large they will be. This work focuses on crest velocities, a quantity that is relatively easy to extract from sea surface elevation fields. It is shown that there is a direct link between crest velocity gradient and wave group linear dispersive focusing. Studying analytically the focusing of one-dimensional Gaussian wave packets under linear evolution makes it possible to derive estimates of quantities at focus, based only on crest velocity measurements. In this way, the focusing time, focusing size and focusing amplitude (relative to instantaneous amplitude) of an isolated Gaussian wave packet can be estimated. Our work is also applicable to second-order non-linear waves. Limitations due to higher-order non-linear effects are studied in numerical simulations of the non-linear Schrödinger equation.