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Analysis of the trends in precipitation and precipitation concentration in some climatological stations of Mexico from 1960 to 2010

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  • Gerardo Núñez-González

    (Centro Universitario de la Costa Sur, Departamento de Ingenierías)

Abstract

Analysis of precipitation trends as well as the observed trends in precipitation concentration can be useful tools for the identification of natural hazards. This study aimed to analyze the trends in precipitation and precipitation concentration at the seasonal and annual levels in Mexico from 1960 to 2010. To do this, an entropy-based concentration index was used to calculate the concentration of precipitation at 44 climatological stations distributed throughout the country. The trend analysis was developed based on the Mann–Kendall test. There were fifteen significant precipitation trends at the annual level, and the numbers of positive and negative trends were nearly even. The interannual average of the concentration index ranged from 0.084 to 0.265, although extreme values of up to 0.56 were observed at the annual level and of up to 1 at the seasonal level. There were more positive trends than negative trends in the concentration index. The comparison of the trends of the precipitation and the concentration index showed an increase in precipitation at some stations with an associated decrease in the concentration index. On the other hand, decreases in precipitation at other stations were accompanied by increases in the concentration index. The first case did not seem to represent risk because the conditions suggested a more regular precipitation pattern. However, the second case could be considered a cautionary indicator, especially in the northern region, where it could signal the potential for drought.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerardo Núñez-González, 2020. "Analysis of the trends in precipitation and precipitation concentration in some climatological stations of Mexico from 1960 to 2010," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1747-1761, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:104:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04244-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04244-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. L Liu & Z. Xu, 2016. "Regionalization of precipitation and the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme precipitation in southwestern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 1195-1211, January.
    2. Raffaele De Risi & Fatemeh Jalayer & Francesco De Paola & Stefano Carozza & Nebyou Yonas & Maurizio Giugni & Paolo Gasparini, 2020. "From flood risk mapping toward reducing vulnerability: the case of Addis Ababa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(1), pages 387-415, January.
    3. Tommaso Caloiero, 2014. "Analysis of daily rainfall concentration in New Zealand," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 389-404, June.
    4. Jimmy Byakatonda & B. P. Parida & Ditiro B. Moalafhi & Piet K. Kenabatho & David Lesolle, 2020. "Investigating relationship between drought severity in Botswana and ENSO," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(1), pages 255-278, January.
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