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Earthquake Forecasting Based on Multi-State System Methodology

Author

Listed:
  • A. Karagrigoriou

    (University of the Aegean
    University of Cyprus)

  • A. Makrides

    (University of Cyprus)

  • T. Tsapanos

    (Aristotle University of Thessaloniki)

  • G. Vougiouka

    (Aristotle University of Thessaloniki)

Abstract

This paper deals with earthquake long term predictions based on multi-state system methodology. As a reference we consider the South America case which was examined (Tsapanos, Bull Geol Soc Gr XXXIV/4:1611–1617, 2001) in the light of the Markov model, in order to define large earthquake recurrences. In this work we make the first attempt to describe seismic zoning data as data of a multi-state system (MSS) and explore earthquake genesis by evaluating intensity rates and transition probabilities between zones using various probabilistic models. For this purpose we incorporate into the procedure discussed in Tsapanos (2001) the effect, via the underlying distribution, of sojourn times between transitions.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Karagrigoriou & A. Makrides & T. Tsapanos & G. Vougiouka, 2016. "Earthquake Forecasting Based on Multi-State System Methodology," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 547-561, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:metcap:v:18:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11009-015-9451-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11009-015-9451-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Norbert Henze & Simos G. Meintanis, 2005. "Recent and classical tests for exponentiality: a partial review with comparisons," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 29-45, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiang, Tao & Liu, Yu, 2017. "Parameter inference for non-repairable multi-state system reliability models by multi-level observation sequences," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 3-15.

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