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About Earthquake Forecasting by Markov Renewal Processes

Author

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  • Elsa Garavaglia

    (Politecnico di Milano)

  • Raffaella Pavani

    (Politecnico di Milano)

Abstract

We propose and validate a new method for the evaluation of seismic hazard. In particular, our aim is to model large earthquakes consistently with the underlying geophysics. Therefore we propose a non-Poisson model, which takes into account occurrence history, improved with some physical constraints. Among the prevalent non-Poisson models, we chose the Markov renewal process, which is expected to be sufficient to capture the main characteristics, maintaining simplicity in analysis. However, due to the introduction of some physical constraint, our process differs significantly from others already presented in literature. A mixture of exponential + Weibull distributions is proposed for the waiting times and their parameters are estimated following the likelihood method. We validated our model, using data of earthquakes of high severity occurred in Turkey during the 20th century. Our results exhibit a good accordance with the real events.

Suggested Citation

  • Elsa Garavaglia & Raffaella Pavani, 2011. "About Earthquake Forecasting by Markov Renewal Processes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 155-169, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:metcap:v:13:y:2011:i:1:d:10.1007_s11009-009-9137-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11009-009-9137-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Enrique E. Alvarez, 2005. "Estimation in Stationary Markov Renewal Processes, with Application to Earthquake Forecasting in Turkey," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 119-130, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Md. Asaduzzaman & A. Latif, 2014. "A parametric Markov renewal model for predicting tropical cyclones in Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 597-612, September.
    2. Iliopoulos, A. & Chorozoglou, D. & Kourouklas, C. & Mangira, O. & Papadimitriou, E., 2020. "Memory and renewal aging of strong earthquakes in Hellenic seismicity," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

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