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The cost of stratospheric climate engineering revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Ryo Moriyama

    (The Institute of Applied Energy)

  • Masahiro Sugiyama

    (The University of Tokyo)

  • Atsushi Kurosawa

    (The Institute of Applied Energy)

  • Kooiti Masuda

    (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC))

  • Kazuhiro Tsuzuki

    (The Institute of Applied Energy)

  • Yuki Ishimoto

    (The Institute of Applied Energy)

Abstract

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) has been receiving increasing attention as a possible option for climate engineering. Its direct cost is perceived to be low, which has implications for international governance of this emerging technology. Here, we critically synthesize previous estimates of the underlying parameters and examine the total costs of SAI. It is evident that there have been inconsistencies in some assumptions and the application of overly optimistic parameter values in previous studies, which have led to an overall underestimation of the cost of aircraft-based SAI with sulfate aerosols. The annual cost of SAI to achieve cooling of 2 W/m2 could reach US$10 billion with newly designed aircraft, which contrasts with the oft-quoted estimate of “a few billion dollars.” If existing aircraft were used, the cost would be expected to increase further. An SAI operation would be a large-scale engineering undertaking, possibly requiring a fleet of approximately 1,000 aircraft, because of the required high altitude of the injection. Therefore, because of its significance, a more thorough investigation of the engineering aspects of SAI and the associated uncertainties is warranted.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryo Moriyama & Masahiro Sugiyama & Atsushi Kurosawa & Kooiti Masuda & Kazuhiro Tsuzuki & Yuki Ishimoto, 2017. "The cost of stratospheric climate engineering revisited," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(8), pages 1207-1228, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:22:y:2017:i:8:d:10.1007_s11027-016-9723-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-016-9723-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Khara D. Grieger & Tyler Felgenhauer & Ortwin Renn & Jonathan Wiener & Mark Borsuk, 2019. "Emerging risk governance for stratospheric aerosol injection as a climate management technology," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 371-382, December.
    3. Sikina Jinnah & Simon Nicholson & David R. Morrow & Zachary Dove & Paul Wapner & Walter Valdivia & Leslie Paul Thiele & Catriona McKinnon & Andrew Light & Myanna Lahsen & Prakash Kashwan & Aarti Gupta, 2019. "Governing Climate Engineering: A Proposal for Immediate Governance of Solar Radiation Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-9, July.
    4. Matthias Honegger & Axel Michaelowa & Jiahua Pan, 2021. "Potential implications of solar radiation modification for achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1-20, June.
    5. Christine Merk & Gert Pönitzsch & Katrin Rehdanz, 2019. "Do climate engineering experts display moral-hazard behaviour?," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 231-243, February.
    6. Rickels, Wilfried & Quaas, Martin F. & Ricke, Katharine & Quaas, Johannes & Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Smulders, Sjak, 2020. "Who turns the global thermostat and by how much?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    7. Jutta Wieding & Jessica Stubenrauch & Felix Ekardt, 2020. "Human Rights and Precautionary Principle: Limits to Geoengineering, SRM, and IPCC Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-23, October.

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