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Tailor-made scenario planning for local adaptation to climate change

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  • Henrik Carlsen
  • Karl Dreborg
  • Per Wikman-Svahn

Abstract

This paper presents a tailor-made scenario approach for climate change adaptation planning, which emphasises involvement of stakeholders in the development of socioeconomic scenarios and relates to the planning situation and interest of the planning entity. The method was developed and tested in case studies in three different sectors in Sweden (the health sector, the tourism sector and water resource management). The result of the case studies is that the tailor-made scenario approach facilitated the engagement of the local planning body in climate change adaptation and helped them to analyse consequences and possible solutions in a structured way. However, the scenarios that emerged mainly focused on socioeconomic drivers on which the planning body had a large impact or drivers that can be influenced through cooperation with other actors at the local or regional level. While this result underlines the need for local stakeholder involvement in scenario processes, it also indicates a local bias that could be remedied by a stronger representation of national and global perspectives in the scenario development process. Finally, we discuss how a “bottom-up” approach could be combined with a “consistency” approach, which points towards a possible way forward to a hybrid methodology that is compatible with the scenario framework currently being developed in connection to the fifth assessment report of the IPCC. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Henrik Carlsen & Karl Dreborg & Per Wikman-Svahn, 2013. "Tailor-made scenario planning for local adaptation to climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(8), pages 1239-1255, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:18:y:2013:i:8:p:1239-1255
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-012-9419-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Keith Bartholomew, 2007. "Land use-transportation scenario planning: promise and reality," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 397-412, July.
    2. Peter Jacques, 2006. "Downscaling climate models and environmental policy: From global to regional politics," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 301-307.
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    1. Sarkki, Simo & Pihlajamäki, Mia, 2019. "Baltic herring for food: Shades of grey in how backcasting recommendations work across exploratory scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 200-209.
    2. Kemp-Benedict, Eric & Carlsen, Henrik & Kartha, Sivan, 2019. "Large-scale scenarios as ‘boundary conditions’: A cross-impact balance simulated annealing (CIBSA) approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 55-63.
    3. Jamie Trammell & Meagan Krupa & Paula Williams & Andrew Kliskey, 2021. "Using Comprehensive Scenarios to Identify Social–Ecological Threats to Salmon in the Kenai River Watershed, Alaska," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-15, May.
    4. Trutnevyte, Evelina & McDowall, Will & Tomei, Julia & Keppo, Ilkka, 2016. "Energy scenario choices: Insights from a retrospective review of UK energy futures," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 326-337.

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