IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/masfgc/v18y2013i8p1239-1255.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tailor-made scenario planning for local adaptation to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Henrik Carlsen
  • Karl Dreborg
  • Per Wikman-Svahn

Abstract

This paper presents a tailor-made scenario approach for climate change adaptation planning, which emphasises involvement of stakeholders in the development of socioeconomic scenarios and relates to the planning situation and interest of the planning entity. The method was developed and tested in case studies in three different sectors in Sweden (the health sector, the tourism sector and water resource management). The result of the case studies is that the tailor-made scenario approach facilitated the engagement of the local planning body in climate change adaptation and helped them to analyse consequences and possible solutions in a structured way. However, the scenarios that emerged mainly focused on socioeconomic drivers on which the planning body had a large impact or drivers that can be influenced through cooperation with other actors at the local or regional level. While this result underlines the need for local stakeholder involvement in scenario processes, it also indicates a local bias that could be remedied by a stronger representation of national and global perspectives in the scenario development process. Finally, we discuss how a “bottom-up” approach could be combined with a “consistency” approach, which points towards a possible way forward to a hybrid methodology that is compatible with the scenario framework currently being developed in connection to the fifth assessment report of the IPCC. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Henrik Carlsen & Karl Dreborg & Per Wikman-Svahn, 2013. "Tailor-made scenario planning for local adaptation to climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(8), pages 1239-1255, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:18:y:2013:i:8:p:1239-1255
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-012-9419-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11027-012-9419-x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11027-012-9419-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Jacques, 2006. "Downscaling climate models and environmental policy: From global to regional politics," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 301-307.
    2. Keith Bartholomew, 2007. "Land use-transportation scenario planning: promise and reality," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 397-412, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kemp-Benedict, Eric & Carlsen, Henrik & Kartha, Sivan, 2019. "Large-scale scenarios as ‘boundary conditions’: A cross-impact balance simulated annealing (CIBSA) approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 55-63.
    2. Trutnevyte, Evelina & McDowall, Will & Tomei, Julia & Keppo, Ilkka, 2016. "Energy scenario choices: Insights from a retrospective review of UK energy futures," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 326-337.
    3. Jamie Trammell & Meagan Krupa & Paula Williams & Andrew Kliskey, 2021. "Using Comprehensive Scenarios to Identify Social–Ecological Threats to Salmon in the Kenai River Watershed, Alaska," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-15, May.
    4. Sarkki, Simo & Pihlajamäki, Mia, 2019. "Baltic herring for food: Shades of grey in how backcasting recommendations work across exploratory scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 200-209.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Laure Cabantous & Olivier Chanel & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2009. "Transport, Health and Climate Change: Deciding on the Optimal Policy," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 120, pages 11-36.
    2. Zuo, Ting & Wei, Heng & Liu, Hao & Yang, Y. Jeffrey, 2019. "Bi-level optimization approach for configuring population and employment distributions with minimized vehicle travel demand," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 161-172.
    3. Lewis, Rebecca & Margerum, Richard D., 2020. "Do urban centers support regional goals? An assessment of regional planning in Denver," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Laure Cabantous & Olivier Chanel & Jean-Christophe Vergnaud, 2009. "Transport, health and global warming: Deciding on the optimal policy," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00636837, HAL.
    5. Kaihang Zhou & Scott Hawken, 2023. "Climate-Related Sea Level Rise and Coastal Wastewater Treatment Infrastructure Futures: Landscape Planning Scenarios for Negotiating Risks and Opportunities in Australian Urban Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-23, June.
    6. Steurer, Nora & Bonilla, David, 2016. "Building sustainable transport futures for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 121-133.
    7. Manley, Ed & Cheng, Tao, 2018. "Exploring the role of spatial cognition in predicting urban traffic flow through agent-based modelling," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 14-23.
    8. Muhammad Qadeer ul Hussnain & Abdul Waheed & Khydija Wakil & Christopher James Pettit & Ejaz Hussain & Malik Asghar Naeem & Ghulam Abbas Anjum, 2020. "Shaping up the Future Spatial Plans for Urban Areas in Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-21, May.
    9. Ian Picketts & John Curry & Stephen Déry & Stewart Cohen, 2013. "Learning with practitioners: climate change adaptation priorities in a Canadian community," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 321-337, May.
    10. Cascetta, Ennio & Cartenì, Armando & Pagliara, Francesca & Montanino, Marcello, 2015. "A new look at planning and designing transportation systems: A decision-making model based on cognitive rationality, stakeholder engagement and quantitative methods," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 27-39.
    11. Spickermann, Alexander & Grienitz, Volker & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Heading towards a multimodal city of the future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 201-221.
    12. Helena Sustar & Miloš N. Mladenović & Moshe Givoni, 2020. "The Landscape of Envisioning and Speculative Design Methods for Sustainable Mobility Futures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, March.
    13. Ma, Lu & Srinivasan, Sivaramakrishnan, 2016. "An empirical assessment of factors affecting the accuracy of target-year synthetic populations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 247-264.
    14. Wang, Ling & Wang, Ke & Zhang, Jianjun & Zhang, Di & Wu, Xia & Zhang, Lijun, 2020. "Multiple objective-oriented land supply for sustainable transportation: A perspective from industrial dependence, dominance and restrictions of 127 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    15. David Hartgen, 2013. "Hubris or humility? Accuracy issues for the next 50 years of travel demand modeling," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(6), pages 1133-1157, November.
    16. de Luca, Stefano, 2014. "Public engagement in strategic transportation planning: An analytic hierarchy process based approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 110-124.
    17. Evan Mallen & Heather A. Joseph & Megan McLaughlin & Dorette Quintana English & Carmen Olmedo & Matt Roach & Carmen Tirdea & Jason Vargo & Matt Wolff & Emily York, 2022. "Overcoming Barriers to Successful Climate and Health Adaptation Practice: Notes from the Field," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-19, June.
    18. Xinhai Lu & Mengcheng Wang & Yifeng Tang, 2021. "The Spatial Changes of Transportation Infrastructure and Its Threshold Effects on Urban Land Use Efficiency: Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:18:y:2013:i:8:p:1239-1255. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.