IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/masfgc/v18y2013i5p591-618.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global evaluation of the effects of agriculture and water management adaptations on the water-stressed population

Author

Listed:
  • Ayami Hayashi
  • Keigo Akimoto
  • Toshimasa Tomoda
  • Masanobu Kii

Abstract

Fresh water is one of the most important resources required for human existence, and ensuring its stable supply is a critical issue for sustainable development. The effects of a general set of agriculture and water management adaptations on the size of the world’s water-stressed population were assessed for a specific but consistent scenario on socio-economic development and climate change during the 21st century. To maintain consistency with agricultural land use change, we developed a grid-based water supply–demand model integrated with an agro-land use model and evaluated the water-stressed population using a water withdrawals-to-availability ratio for river basins. Our evaluation shows that, if no adaptation options are implemented, the world’s water-stressed population will increase from 1.8 billion in 2000 to about 3.3 billion in 2050, and then remain fairly constant. The population and economic growth rather than climate change will be dominant factors of this increase. Significant increase in the water-stressed population will occur in regions such as North Africa and the Middle East, India, Other South Asia, China and Southeast Asia. The key adaptation options differ by region, depending on dominant crops, increase in crop demand and so on. For instance, ‘improvement of irrigation efficiency’ and ‘enhancement of reclamation water’ seem to be one of important options to reduce the water stress in Southeast Asia, and North Africa and the Middle East, respectively. The worldwide implementation of adaptation options could decrease the water-stressed population by about 5 % and 7–17 %, relative to the scenario without adaptations, in 2050 and 2100, respectively. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Ayami Hayashi & Keigo Akimoto & Toshimasa Tomoda & Masanobu Kii, 2013. "Global evaluation of the effects of agriculture and water management adaptations on the water-stressed population," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 591-618, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:18:y:2013:i:5:p:591-618
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-012-9377-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11027-012-9377-3
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11027-012-9377-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank, 2008. "World Development Indicators 2008," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 11855.
    2. Akimoto, Keigo & Sano, Fuminori & Homma, Takashi & Oda, Junichiro & Nagashima, Miyuki & Kii, Masanobu, 2010. "Estimates of GHG emission reduction potential by country, sector, and cost," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3384-3393, July.
    3. World Bank, 2008. "World Development Indicators 2008," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28241.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ayami Hayashi & Fuminori Sano & Yasuhide Nakagami & Keigo Akimoto, 2018. "Changes in terrestrial water stress and contributions of major factors under temperature rise constraint scenarios," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 1179-1205, December.
    2. Nechifor, Victor, 2018. "Global economic and food security impacts of demand-driven water scarcity," Conference papers 332931, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. David O'Connor & James Ford, 2014. "Increasing the Effectiveness of the “Great Green Wall” as an Adaptation to the Effects of Climate Change and Desertification in the Sahel," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(10), pages 1-13, October.
    4. Vasilenko, Alexandr & Ulman, Miloš, 2015. "Concept of Horticulture Ambient Intelligence System," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 7(4), pages 1-8, December.
    5. Bisrat Ayalew Yifru & Min-Gyu Kim & Jeong-Woo Lee & Il-Hwan Kim & Sun-Woo Chang & Il-Moon Chung, 2021. "Water Storage in Dry Riverbeds of Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: Overview, Challenges, and Prospects of Sand Dam Technology," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, May.
    6. Žiga Malek & Peter H. Verburg, 2018. "Adaptation of land management in the Mediterranean under scenarios of irrigation water use and availability," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 821-837, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ayami Hayashi & Fuminori Sano & Yasuhide Nakagami & Keigo Akimoto, 2018. "Changes in terrestrial water stress and contributions of major factors under temperature rise constraint scenarios," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 1179-1205, December.
    2. Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda, 2012. "Targeted Subsidies and Private Market Participation: An Assessment of Fertilizer Demand in Nigeria:," IFPRI discussion papers 1194, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Klaus Desmet & Ignacio Ortuño-Ortín & Romain Wacziarg, 2009. "The political economy of ethnolinguistic cleavages," Working Papers 2009-17, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
    4. Shafaeddin, Mehdi, 2010. "Trade liberalization, industrialization and development; experience of recent decades," MPRA Paper 26355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Nicola Banks, 2014. "What works for young people's development? A Case Study of BRAC's Empowerment and Livelihoods for Adolescent Girls programme in Uganda and Tanzania," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 21214, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    6. Andreas Steiner, 2010. "Central Banks’ Dilemma: Reserve Accumulation, Inflation and Financial Instability," IEER Working Papers 84, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    7. James Roumasset & Christopher Wada, 2012. "The Economics of Groundwater," Working Papers 201211, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    8. Rosta, Miklós, 2013. "New Public Management: opportunity for the Centre, thread for the Periphery," MPRA Paper 68474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Hübler, Michael, 2011. "Technology diffusion under contraction and convergence: A CGE analysis of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 131-142, January.
    10. Blocker, Christopher P. & Ruth, Julie A. & Sridharan, Srinivas & Beckwith, Colin & Ekici, Ahmet & Goudie-Hutton, Martina & Rosa, José Antonio & Saatcioglu, Bige & Talukdar, Debabrata & Trujillo, Carlo, 2013. "Understanding poverty and promoting poverty alleviation through transformative consumer research," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(8), pages 1195-1202.
    11. Richens, Peter, 2009. "The economic legacies of the ‘thin white line’: indirect rule and the comparative development of sub-Saharan Africa," Economic History Working Papers 27879, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    12. James, Jennifer S. & Pardey, Philip G. & Alston, Julian M., 2008. "Agricultural R&D Policy: A Tragedy of the International Commons," Staff Papers 43094, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    13. Vrachimis Konstantinos & Zachariadis Marios, 2013. "A contribution to the empirics of welfare growth," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 213-244, April.
    14. Hoon Lee & Joseph L. Staats & Glen Biglaiser, 2012. "The importance of legal systems for portfolio investment in the developing world," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 339-358, December.
    15. Boris Branisa & Adriana Cardozo, 2009. "Regional Growth Convergence in Colombia Using Social Indicators," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 195, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Bergh, Andreas & Nilsson, Therese, 2010. "Good for Living? On the Relationship between Globalization and Life Expectancy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 1191-1203, September.
    17. Cazzavillan, Guido & Olszewski, Krzysztof, 2012. "Interaction between foreign financial services and foreign direct investment in Transition Economies: An empirical analysis with focus on the manufacturing sector," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(4), pages 305-319.
    18. Sophie Perrin & Thomas Bernauer, 2010. "International regime formation revisited: Explaining ratification behaviour with respect to long-range transboundary air pollution agreements in Europe," European Union Politics, , vol. 11(3), pages 405-426, September.
    19. Ferrari, Emanuele & Mueller, Marc & Mellado, Aida Gonzalez, 2010. "Using Macro Indicators for Consistent CGE Baselines," Conference papers 331987, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Günseli Berik & Yana Van Der Meulen Rodgers, 2010. "Options for enforcing labour standards: Lessons from Bangladesh And Cambodia," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 56-85.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:18:y:2013:i:5:p:591-618. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.