IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/laecrv/v27y2018i1d10.1186_s40503-018-0057-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetric real-exchange-rate effects on capital accumulation: evidence from non-linear ARDL models for Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos A. Ibarra

    (Universidad de las Américas Puebla)

Abstract

The paper studies the effects of the real exchange rate (RER) on capital accumulation in Mexico in the period since the late 1980s. By testing for the existence of potential asymmetries, the paper seeks to clarify some of the controversies surrounding the subject. It shows the RER’s long-run effects to be qualitatively symmetric but quantitatively asymmetric; thus, while appreciations slow accumulation, depreciations accelerate it, but to a lesser degree. Depreciations, moreover, have dynamically asymmetric effects, expansionary in the long run but contractionary in the short run. The effects are derived from non-linear autoregressive distributed lag models for the private capital accumulation rate in the manufacturing, tradables, and non-tradables sectors, and for the aggregate level of private fixed investment. The results help to reconcile the contradictory conclusions reached by previous studies of Mexico, and to clarify the potential role of the real exchange rate as either barrier or engine of growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos A. Ibarra, 2018. "Asymmetric real-exchange-rate effects on capital accumulation: evidence from non-linear ARDL models for Mexico," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 27(1), pages 1-24, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:laecrv:v:27:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1186_s40503-018-0057-x
    DOI: 10.1186/s40503-018-0057-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s40503-018-0057-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s40503-018-0057-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand regimes: the long and the short of it," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 373-390, October.
    2. Razmi, Arslan & Rapetti, Martin & Skott, Peter, 2012. "The real exchange rate and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 151-169.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Takeshi Tashiro, 2013. "Crowding out redefined: the role of reserve accumulation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 1-43.
    4. Berg, Andrew & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2012. "What makes growth sustained?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 149-166.
    5. Schröder, Marcel, 2013. "Should developing countries undervalue their currencies?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 140-151.
    6. Mart�n Rapetti & Peter Skott & Arslan Razmi, 2012. "The real exchange rate and economic growth: are developing countries different?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 735-753, April.
    7. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    8. Kappler, Marcus & Reisen, Helmut & Schularick, Moritz & Turkisch, Edouard, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 471-494.
    9. Ronald MacDonald & Flávio Vieira, "undated". "A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth," Working Papers 2010_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    10. José Luis Oreiro & Eliane Araujo, 2013. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Capital Accumulation and Income Distribution Theory and Evidence from the Case of Brazil," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(3), pages 381-396, May.
    11. Sophie B鲥au & Antonia López Villavicencio & Val鲩e Mignon, 2012. "Currency misalignments and growth: a new look using nonlinear panel data methods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(27), pages 3503-3511, September.
    12. Luis Miguel Galindo & Jaime Ros, 2008. "Alternatives to inflation targeting in Mexico," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 201-214.
    13. Nouira, Ridha & Sekkat, Khalid, 2012. "Desperately seeking the positive impact of undervaluation on growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 537-552.
    14. Konrad Adler & Christian Grisse, 2017. "Thousands of BEERs: Take your pick," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 1078-1104, November.
    15. Sophie B鲥au & Antonia López Villavicencio & Val鲩e Mignon, 2012. "Currency misalignments and growth: a new look using nonlinear panel data methods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(27), pages 3503-3511, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pham Van Dai & Sarath Delpachitra & Simon Cottrell, 2017. "Real Exchange Rate And Economic Growth In East Asian Countries: The Role Of Financial Integration," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(01), pages 163-177, March.
    2. Firat Demir & Arslan Razmi, 2022. "The Real Exchange Rate And Development Theory, Evidence, Issues And Challenges," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 386-428, April.
    3. José Luis Oreiro & Fabricio Missio & Frederico G. Jayme Jr., 2015. "Capital Accumulation, Structural Change and Real Exchange Rate in a Keynesian-Structuralist Growth Model," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(2), pages 237-256, June.
    4. Ribeiro, Rafael S.M. & McCombie, John S.L. & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2020. "Does real exchange rate undervaluation really promote economic growth?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 408-417.
    5. Vaseem Akram & Badri Narayan Rath, 2018. "Exchange rate misalignment and total factor productivity growth in case of emerging market economies," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 547-564, July.
    6. Frenkel, Roberto & Rapetti, Martin, 2014. "The real exchange rate as a target of macroeconomic policy," MPRA Paper 59335, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou & Valérie Mignon & Florian Morvillier, 2024. "Reconciling contrasting views on the growth effect of currency undervaluations," Working Papers hal-04568924, HAL.
    8. Morvillier, Florian, 2020. "Do currency undervaluations affect the impact of inflation on growth?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 275-292.
    9. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2015. "Crecimiento económico y desalineación del tipo de cambio real en la República Dominicana: ¿Hay alguna relación? [Economic growth and the real exchange rate misalignments in the Dominican Republic: ," MPRA Paper 70974, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Rapetti Martin, 2013. "Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in a Competitive Real Exchange Rate Strategy for Development," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-31, March.
    11. Abdallah, Ali, 2022. "Dépréciation réelle de la monnaie et croissance économique [Can real currency depreciation lead growth?]," MPRA Paper 113183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Arslan Razmi, 2022. "The real consequences of policy‐driven exchange rate cycles: A stylized comparison of East Asia and Latin America," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(2), pages 190-212, March.
    13. Abdul Jalil, 2021. "Exchange Rate Policy Must Seek Undervaluation!," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 60(1), pages 85-91.
    14. Guilherme R. Magacho & John S. L. McCombie, 2020. "Structural change and cumulative causation: A Kaldorian approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 633-660, July.
    15. Ferdinand Owoundi & Jacques Landry Bikai, 2021. "On the neutrality of the exchange rate regime regarding real misalignments: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 327-345, July.
    16. Jinzhao Chen, 2015. "Interprovincial Competitiveness and Economic Growth: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Data (1992–2008)," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 388-414, August.
    17. Florian Morvillier, 2019. "Do currency undervaluations affect the impact of inflation on growth?," Post-Print hal-02138677, HAL.
    18. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2013. "Capital Flows and Private Investment in Mexico," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(3, Cierre), pages 65-99.
    19. Waqar Khalid & Javed Iqbal & Nosheen Nasir & Misbah Nosheen, 2024. "Do real exchange rate misalignments have threshold effects on economic growth? Asymmetric evidence from Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1-40, December.
    20. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:laecrv:v:27:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1186_s40503-018-0057-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.