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Macroeconomic Determinants of Crime: Evidence from India

Author

Listed:
  • Devika Hazra

    (California State University, Los Angeles)

  • Zhen Cui

    (California State University, Los Angeles)

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between crime, inflation, unemployment, and real GDP per capita in India. Based on the national-level data, the Johansen cointegration test confirms the presence of cointegration relationship between the variables. The Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test suggests that macroeconomic indicators, especially unemployment, can significantly affect crime in India. Based on the state-level data, the ordinary least squares results corroborate the effect of inflation on crime even after controlling for governance. However, they fail to verify the relationship between crime, unemployment, and real GDP per capita.

Suggested Citation

  • Devika Hazra & Zhen Cui, 2018. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Crime: Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 187-198, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jqecon:v:16:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s40953-018-0127-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s40953-018-0127-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    3. Chor Foon Tang & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2007. "Will Inflation Increase Crime Rate? New Evidence from Bounds and Modified Wald Tests," Global Crime, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 311-323, November.
    4. Mundle, Sudipto & Chakraborty, Pinaki & Chowdhury, Samik & Sikdar, Satadru, 2012. "The Quality of Governance: How Have Indian States Performed?," Working Papers 12/104, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mindaugas Butkus & Kristina Matuzevièi?t? & Alma Maèiulyt?-Šniukien?, 2019. "Do Economic Conditions Still Cause Crime? Some Comforting Empirical Evidences from EU Panel," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(2), pages 603-628.
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    4. Dutta, Nabamita & Jana, Dipparna & Kar, Saibal, 2020. "Does state-level per capita income affect juvenile delinquency? An empirical analysis for Indian states," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 109-120.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; Macroeconomic conditions; GDP per capita; Inflation; Unemployment; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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