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A Behavioral Interpretation of Belief Functions

Author

Listed:
  • Timber Kerkvliet

    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Ronald Meester

    (VU University Amsterdam)

Abstract

Shafer’s belief functions were introduced in the seventies of the previous century as a mathematical tool in order to model epistemic probability. One of the reasons that they were not picked up by mainstream probability was the lack of a behavioral interpretation. In this paper, we provide such a behavioral interpretation and re-derive Shafer’s belief functions via a betting interpretation reminiscent of the classical Dutch Book Theorem for probability distributions. We relate our betting interpretation of belief functions to the existing literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Timber Kerkvliet & Ronald Meester, 2018. "A Behavioral Interpretation of Belief Functions," Journal of Theoretical Probability, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 2112-2128, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jotpro:v:31:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s10959-017-0776-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10959-017-0776-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michel Grabisch & Jean-Luc Marichal & Radko Mesiar & Endre Pap, 2009. "Aggregation functions," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00445120, HAL.
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